Metal Monday Episode #35 with Nick and Brett, August 29th, 2022

On the last episode of Metal Monday in August, the guys discuss how pricing is looking as we go into September and share their predictions for the fall.

Transcription

all right last metal monday of august which is crazy we’re almost we’re coming into fall yesterday the weather was finally crisp it felt so good to walk around a little bit of crisp weather this morning i walked with my son to the bus stop and uh it was dad it’s kind of cold this morning and i was like yeah i go you fall is in the air bud i said it’s coming so yeah i didn’t think it was cold but for him it felt a little chilly he actually had his shorts and his little jacket on so but just wait till wednesday we’re back to 103. i know so you take a little bit of a break in the action and then back to hot just like the weather in idaho the markets are up and down yes because why i haven’t checked in an hour which is probably a mistake but let me look right now because it was down about eight cents yeah it was off seven ish okay a little bit ago six and a half on the on comex for copper everything else is fairly you know seven eight

cents um everything is else it’s kind of fairly trading fairly in line you know pgms were kind of sideways fish they were a little bit positive this morning early and they’re fairly sideways um but yeah it’s it’s a while it’s right now i mean it’s it’s pretty uh wild out there just trying to figure out if you think you know which way this thing’s going please call me you know we’re over here placing bets and doing what we do every day but the reality of it is i think we’re all just guessing yeah everyone is i spent a lot of time reading articles in the past i still scam them i read some of them don’t get me wrong i like to kind of know where the trajectory might go but you also could just flip a coin on some of those articles you know just flip a coin and guess you know because who knows like really it’s about where it was a week ago to be honest with you because we did have some gains thursday friday friday went up and everything that went up got taken away so it’s not really

down you know if you look at it from a glass metal monday you know it’s there’s definitely a trading range going on right now right i think that’s the it’s not the worst case scenario when there’s it’s when it’s like in a range it’s because there is some money to be made you know when the range is within 20 15 20 cents on the copper or whatever you can buy you know the lower side and then if you get a little bit of extra juice in it as long as the spreads don’t widen out on you i think that’s what you have to watch out which i don’t really feel like they are um but in general like it’s it’s kind of touch and go i mean you know over here in like the boise area the housing starting to come off you know you’re starting to see more houses for sale the pricing is coming down you can tell the economy just isn’t you know rip roaring on fire like it was say six months ago you know yeah something slow you know it’s definitely slowing down which inevitably needed to happen too

you know i needed it it’s not it’s not the worst case scenario if they can if the fed can land this big jumbo jet you know and like they think they can it’ll be interesting you hear a lot of people saying it can’t be done no soft landing this and that and who am i to say yay or nay you know i i have no idea but you know the fed interest rates you know the euro you know the dollar strengthening you know it touched the 20-year high you know i don’t know i think there’s a lot of you know external forces out there you know they’re that are wreaking some havoc in the metals markets right yeah and those all those forces affect us on the daily you know yeah so that’s why it’s important to kind of know what’s going on out there and be mindful of it i mean when you’re buying or selling you just got to kind of know what’s going on out there it’s not if your price is fluctuating it’s because that thing’s fluctuating 10 cents sometimes you know quickly um we’re going to be in

september on the next metal monday any any thoughts on fairness you know i got a bulls and bears coming up with chad okay chad so this one should be interesting because i think it i don’t know i could you know there’s there’s both of i think there’s fairly legitimate arguments to both sides but you know i feel like the market should you know should have found a bottom we might get a little bit of positivity you still feel that way you felt that way you felt that way all month yeah i still feel that way i still i mean i’m not saying we’re gonna like i said last week i’m not saying we’re gonna get a big huge increase but i just i don’t feel like there’s a lot of downside risk to it right now um you know so i i feel fairly positive about the ferris side i’m not but at least where today’s pricing is i don’t feel like you’re gonna have to you know come down significantly farther what’s going to be interesting though more than pricing is going to be demand and i talk to a lot of people

that you know if you have yards all over the place and different pockets different areas you know you have steel mills that might sit out this month you’ve got some that have decent demand depends on what they’re melting depends on you know what their output material is and are they really construction rebar based are they you know like more on the octg side you know where the oil you know where oil is still pretty hot the drilling is still going um i think there’s just it’s it’s going to be interesting it’s very very geographically driven this month one article i did see last week is the projected rebar usage in china was not like considerably but lower than anticipated yeah so you would think that would affect demand you would think these mills making all this material might be just be hesitant because of the looming uh recession if we do see a big one i think people are a little afraid to put it all put it all out there and i think when people get a little more comfortable used to this new you know this new economy we’re in then you

think nothing kills demand more and i mean on anything right than than people not knowing where things are going you know or at least not having a feel for it i think nothing nothing kills demand to buy a house any more than if you’ve then just the thought that the price could go down right yeah interest rates are going up that’s a fact but the thought that the pricing could be coming down more will put the brakes on buyers people that need to buy right now want to buy right now i mean nothing kills demand faster than just the thought the price could come down on anything like whether it’s a side-by-side you know you know utv or a boat or a house or i mean consumer demand will get crushed just for that reason yeah and i think that’s what we’re seeing right now for sure so we’ll see if the that fear goes away with some of these markets and we see an increase or if it continues to trickle down on the positive note though the reality is there’s still opportunity and and the opportunity is for you to

refine your business tighten it up like the opportunity is going to be there for maybe somebody else that doesn’t want to go through another down cycle for you to expand your business and you know add on another location or two right the opportunities are going to be there it’s just a matter of what you decide to do with them will the opportunities be as plentiful as they might have been a year ago maybe not you might have to work a little bit harder to find them but they’re still going to be there and you know recycling of metals and commodities isn’t going anywhere like that’s the fact so you might as well get used to the price wings but the reality of it is in our industry in our business it’s not all negative right so keep it light keep it keep your heads up and keep trucking all right thank you brett everyone check out a little more details on his bulls versus bears yeah we’ll have that out soon okay all right have a great week bye