Metal Monday Episode #31 with Nick and Brett, August 1st, 2022

On this episode of Metal Monday Brett and Nick revisit their copper bet for the past one and place a new one for the next 6 weeks. They also share their predictions for the market as the weather continues to stay hot.

Transcription

all right we’re in august officially and it is still 105 degrees outside here in idaho it’s hot it’s hot it’s uh i don’t i mean it is august it is the beginning of august so it’s it’s kind of typical for our area surprisingly it’s kind of it took a while for the heat to really get here but once it arrived it arrived with the vengeance it’s been here for a few weeks uh not just here like pacific northwest you’re seeing in seattle portland i’m sure all the scrap yards in the pacific northwest they’re feeling those pains of the equipment getting too hot the people not want to go wrestle some uh some scrap to bring india you know it just it does affect the flow so you gotta get in early get it you know get the material or if you’re going to run your equipment you got to start it early get stuff processed before you’re overheating everything um luckily for us this isn’t phoenix arizona so we there is an end to it yeah you know the it’s you know usually towards the end of august you know early september it

definitely cools down but we probably got another give or take a few weeks of real hot oh yeah i know we’ve got a couple more weeks there’s no point to get you know to work too worked up about it because it’s going to be here for a little bit i got a feeling so i got a text from you you were camping with your family yeah i got a text from you on thursday a screenshot of 350 copper yes you did it it was like it was on kitco and i was looking at it comex hit it but coleman said 50 because i was going to argue with the on the podcast because comex was like 3 49 but then it then it took friday so you you broke it thursday-ish maybe it broke thursday but friday it just blew off blew it out and now we’re back down to about 350. yeah right around 83 i think is what i saw this morning um did it get to 360 i didn’t see no i got to like 57. okay 58. at least near is like what i what i could tell but

i don’t know i believe we’re back we’re going to go back to four bucks is that our next bet it has to be 405. no 3.95 you um no i think it’s four dollars all right you got four i bet that’s 50 cents i got everything i asked for yeah i’m not asking i just seen how much you’d give me no you’re like the point spread guys yeah no i think uh i think that for okay four dollars but i i need like six weeks six no no no we gotta go into the month 390. oh you four we already agreed i want six weeks though five weeks and four 403 402 and i and i get six weeks i’ll take 402 six weeks done six weeks from now that is the hundred dollars you gave me a few months ago it’s yours now because we went double or nothing i’m gonna leave it i’m gonna leave it right there okay we’re back to even we’ll just we’ll leave our cash up there maybe when we finally settle up we’ll do something cool with that money exactly so what do you think about

um the markets today well the pgms for the catalytic converter guys out there they’re just ripping we’re just talking i’m not really 100 sure why i’ve been trying to scrub i think it might be something with that micro processor bill i think that’s going to affect it because once the microprocessors get done here like even here at micron that’s going to help the car guys finish these cars i think there might be some connection there because i think so i don’t i don’t know i mean i think it’s coming it comes back to russia china um as well i think there’s some that you know there’s there’s some real political you know chess moves being played right now with china yeah and china you know being a big consumer of you know pgms especially russian pgms and then you know everything that’s going on with russia and i don’t pretend to know all the geopolitics you know of what’s going on just kind of try and control as much as we control around here but i really do feel that that there’s some real um chess moves being made right now and it’s it’s

kind of scary if you really want to really think about like what could really happen which i don’t i just kind of is what it is we’ll just play the cards with dell but to see those metals bounce that hard and everything bounce hard except for copper is interesting you know nickel nickels screaming today yeah i i think that’s which is i’m excited because we’ve got a lot of stainless that we’ve been piling up yeah so you know we saw that price get really bad oh really really bad you know and i think you’re really going to have to wait on stainless my my gut says you’re probably gonna have to put it in pile for a couple months and i say put in a pile i mean we’re still cutting it boxing it bailing it getting it ready but i still think you’re gonna have to still wait for them we’ve done that with stainless before we kind of we we’re kind of built for that like we don’t we’re not built to save a lot of the product but stainless we kind of are stainless we have the ability to to stack

it there’s a few items we do have the ability to stack at copper if we really want copper pgms if we really want to i mean there’s some of that ferrous could get stacked at some yards you know we’ve got you know a big couple big ferris processing yards if we really want to pilot we can but generally speaking we don’t play that game all the time it’s just we just kind of pick and choose our spots and then kind of try and get the out the door so i was checking out the fast markets amm articles on ferris to kind of just get a pulse on what’s going on it seems like a lot of the export prices were falling they are 20 to 40. i think it’s i was anticipating a sideways august earlier by two weeks ago and now i’m probably anticipating a softer august which the reality of it is i mean i think and i’m not the only one to say this but we’ve been we’ve done a really good job of getting rid of scrap so it’s kind of hard to judge our ability to get rid of

scrap versus you know somebody else’s you know lack of flow so but i think our ability to get rid of scrap plus the flow slowing down you know really puts us in a position of we don’t have a ton of scrap to ship so no we don’t you know we have the ability to wait for the right number we have the ability to move if if it makes sense which is a good position for us to be in and hopefully other people in that same position where if you want to move it you can but you don’t have to if the number doesn’t make sense um and i think that’s about where we’re at right now it wasn’t maybe that way before you know say six months