Metal Monday Episode #27 with Nick and Brett, July 5th, 2022

On this episode of Metal Monday (on a Tuesday), Brett and Nick discuss the holiday weekend, where the market lies currently and what to expect for the next coming months.

Transcription

okay metal monday on the 5th of july and it is not pretty it is red as red can be like everything is just getting killed you know i mean copper copper’s 17-month low 340 340-ish lows it’s been in 17 months um nickel was the only thing green at all and it wasn’t even really green it was like it goes green on the kitko app but if you go to like the real lme yeah it’s down yeah it’s but it was it was actually it looked really good yesterday aluminum nickel all the talks of uh the biden administration basically doing away with the trump era tariffs was what kind of talked the market up yesterday while we were over here in america on holiday yeah fourth of july the other um the other markets everybody else was still open and the lme being one of the markets obviously that we pay attention to was open and it was a fairly positive day yesterday we gave all that back today and then some why why did it come why did it come off today if it was so positive yesterday you know i

just think this more more talk of the recession i mean oil’s down 10 a barrel right now you know this morning was off seven and some change um people are starting to realize that we’re actually gonna have to probably take it on the chin for a little bit if they’re going to try and get inflation under control which in commodities in general you’re going to you know if the interest rates are going up and the dollar is i mean at multi-year highs right i mean compared to any currency right now um it’s you know and that that is like really probably one of the biggest drivers of it more than anything um right now is just the strength of the dollar the outlook of a recession is probably the you know one a one b yeah then you know from there it’s you know everything else trickles down from there that’s what i feel like it is it’s a lot of speculation on the recession coming you know and yeah and it rightfully could be happening but like like how long does that last i would say speculation drove it up yeah just

like speculation can drive it down really does it and then there’s all of its speculation really to a certain extent when you have big swings yes yeah right like when it just kind of moves along at a steady pace one way or the other i think is when it’s up and down a penny or two when you get big swings it’s you know it’s people that are betting real hard on one side or the other and i think that’s what’s that’s what’s pushing the commodities you know more than anything so well the swings are tough i mean everything that we bought last week looks like today you know today and this week but it’s the business we’re in um end of the day i still remember when i would have really liked the 340 copper you know i remember those days and those days weren’t that long ago and you know what i i feel like you know just judging by the uh copper inventories i mean you can speculate and you can push it down for a little while but at some point people are going to start looking around and going well

how much how much has changed what’s changed unless you do get a nasty recession if you really do get that which is kind of self-induced right now i mean because basically just trying to push inflation off yeah you know then i guess you know copper could get really get stung but generally speaking i think business sentiment if there’s some relief in some direction and rates where people feel like okay the rates are going to level off you know and i’m talking about the federal you know fed rates they feel like i feel like if once they can you know kind of talk some um calmness back in this market it can change you know and it can change in a hurry because you’ve got a lot of people shorten this thing and a lot you know shorten the base metals shorting the market in general and you know that’s when squeezes happen so we’ll see i’m uh i think as far as ferris goes this month i think it’s going to be off the positive is you know it feels like you know the the export some of the export pricing has picked

up into turkey so so they it’s kind of pronounced a little bit you know this last week so some of the export pricing is kind of maybe hopefully finding a bottom and is actually pushed up a little bit which one you know may not help a lot this month but you know the the next few months maybe that that changes and realistically i think that if the dollar finds any weakness then this thing can really go hard again but yes as of right now you know the dollar is is the king of kings right now when it comes to these other currencies and i think that’s that’s the bigger that’s that’s the bigger takeaway today all right well i guess we’ll wait and see where we land on ferris we’ll see if we’ll see if copper found its bottom we’ll see if it rebounds and we’ll keep everybody posted guess we’ll just spend the month of july cleaning up stuff we’re still buying we’re still buying scrap we’re still uh processing scrap it’s gonna be a hot month you know usually july is um august is so it’s gonna be an interesting couple months

you know we’ll probably tighten the bed a little bit and just trying to keep keep things the screen movement has to go somewhere scraps everybody and everybody works off the same markets and sells into the same market so we’re all in the same like one a one of our good converter customers a long time ago would always say we’re all swimming in the same muddy water you know so absolutely absolutely it’s just who becomes a better swimmer at one point or another right all right look all right everybody have a great week and uh we’ll see you next actually monday versus on tuesday that’s right thanks everybody bye