welcome to a scrap life a podcast solely focused on the hustlers Grinders operators and business owners who live and breathe the scrap metal industry every day here is your host Brett eard what’s going on everybody this is another Bulls versus bulls uh scrap live podcast we don’t invite Bears on this show anymore more we just tell them we’re not here to hear listen to your negativity we only want positivity so we only invite BS on the show I like to introduce you my friend who’s a who’s a bull this month Chad what’s going on man well don’t worry Brett I got the biggest bull Point ever for the end of this end of this podcast today so it’s gonna be great oh I bet I it’s like one of those like you tell me you got something good and then you’re going to on me I think at the end well I’ll I’ll I’ll keep it positive and hope that something positive is going to come out of this but what’s going on man it’s uh you know April was pretty good to us you know on the scrap side I mean it wasn’t

you know it wasn’t up a hundred but we got a little bit of love and some of the grades are you here to tell me that you’re going to give us more or you gonna try and uh the Marcus is going to try and take some of that back this month well I’m surprised it feels like a a sideways market like doesn’t exist right in the last couple years but see most of the grades move move flat last month was was nice from a from a buyers and I’m sure a sellers perspective right just uh keep moving but we’ll we’ll see what uh we’ll see what may brings I still don’t think we have a real good idea on demand yet um at the beginning of the month so it’s still pretty early right today’s May 1 hopefully we get this thing out today tomorrow so people can have something to digest going to the weekend it feels like usually the whenever the month hits like this in the middle it feels like a lot of the deals don’t get done until the following week because everybody’s trying to sort out especially in a

market like today where it’s a little you know it could go either way it doesn’t really feel like there’s a clear Direction um you know I I’d like to keep positive and think that we got nothing but good vibes and nothing but higher prices coming but if you’ve watched the the you know the base medals the last you know few days you know they’ve definitely softened up you know they were on a pretty good trajectory um last week and the week before but just like anything it feels like it’s softening up right when we’re supposed to be trading some Fair scrap for the whole month but you know see what happens I know buyers don’t typically pay more when they’re buying on the 10th 11th or 12th of the month that’s the exactly that’s my point when they when the guys come out and they’re like what do you got how much you got it’s the first you’re like oh yeah we got a little so you’re saying we got a chance but when it’s like yeah we see what next week shakes out maybe I should move some of this scrap before I

get on with it you know I love it I love it easy read all right so so so let’s let’s talk about from macro to micro approach as always I mean the Dow Jones fell fell some a lot of this was due to more of a hawkish tone from the Fed what are your what are your thoughts here yeah I mean like I said I it’s it’s interesting to see kind of how the stock market plays a role and I think it’s more mentally than anything in in in when it comes to the the ferah scrap trade just because people want to you know they’re trying to understand like what is what’s going to drive the the price of scrap higher lower it’s probably not necessarily the Dow it’s probably like what do the steel mills feel like they can sell on the finished good side you know yeah versus you know what the financial gurus of the world are out there doing you know trading stocks um now it does play a role I think it does like there is some you know consideration just to the you know the I don’t know

the the feel of of where things could be projected for the month but they’re gonna I mean buyers of scrap are going to use every Advantage they can to tell you the Market’s soft you know well if I’m playing my role as a bear I would tell you that look the Dow Jones is down the market feeling is more more hawkish you know that can only mean one thing demand is going to be down construction doesn’t feel great Automotive doesn’t feel great I mean what sector feels great right now Brett that’s your answer yeah it really and honestly like if I’m being honest like I I don’t think any of it feels all that great and if you look at some of the numbers that they’re coming out with you know I mean the price of of goods is up but the orders are down so you’re creating some sort of kind of stagflationary environment which is what people were worried about you know trying to get inflation under control but at the same time like you’re losing orders you know you’re losing momentum on the on the uh construction side so yeah that

that part of it’s going to be that’s what makes this trade interesting right is if you can get some sort of demand and obviously the pricing there to push it just because of inflation then then yeah maybe you got something but unless the demand for widgets and cars and rebar shows up we could be in a in a tricky spot I think I think even manufacturers are I mean their their raw material costs are higher their Labor’s higher and I think they’re starting to pass along those increase and in their price of their good right and from your washer to your dryer to to whatever and so I think that’s that’s only slowing down the the consumer as products all around become more expensive yeah I I I tend to agree with that as much as I don’t like agreeing with you I’ll I’ll give you that one all right well hey on a positive note let’s talk about pig iron pig iron Let’s do let’s let’s uh let’s talk about it last month we were at 460 465 this month we’re at 470 475 yeah yeah Feeling Good Feeling Good yeah we got

we got so you’re saying we got a chance man we got a little bit of little bit of love but let’s not get too excited because if you look at steel lead times you know we’re just hanging around that four-week Mark so not not good not good at all no that’s uh that’s going to be challenging especially if you’ve got more capacity coming on right I mean that’s going to be the interesting Dynamic I think from this lead times um perspective is if you have a bunch let’s say you’ve got the next year or two you’ve got um I forget the figure but the the number of tons that are coming in like from a capacity standpoint like that could dramatically affect the lead time schedule but if there’s that much more you know ability to soak up you know scrap tons shredded tons you know um input I’m I’m wondering if that how that trend is going to change you know like if lead times is going going to play as much of a role in factoring pricing as you know consumption is and and and if the lead time doesn’t tell

the story the pricing will and this is this is Hot Roll um coil Futures and you can see you know we went crazy in 21 22 we had another bounce but but from a technical analysis stand point you can see we’re hitting lower highs right so we PE we Peak 21 lower high around you know we’re highest 2,000 then 1,600 then 1,200 then 1150 then 900 so you just got to think until that Trend stops until we start going the other way right we’re still kind of in a a slower atmosphere and this does genuinely feel 2016 15 16ish like it really does where everybody’s like just trying to figure out where this economy goes and I think that the election you know as it gets closer it only creates more volatility in everything right I mean people are trying to guess what the fed’s gonna do who’s going to be the president what’s that going to do to your taxes I mean like I don’t think the current Administration Uncle Joe has uh he made no bones about it like if he’s reelected the taxes are going up my little

bit let’s double those C rates or everybody be ready to pay more taxes right but if old if all Uncle Trump gets elected then maybe maybe we got a chance you know maybe they he’ll keep the taxes down and and Juice the economy a little bit we’ll see um but that that has to play a role in some of this pricing action that we’re seeing I mean politically we shouldn’t be talking about Biden and Trump we should be talking about who’s going to who’s going to feed those those poor college kids in Columbia when they’re on protest I mean that that’s really what we should be talking about here BR exactly who’s going to feed all the poor college kids that when they get out of college can’t find a job that’s what we should be talking about like how many art uh language art degrees can we flush into the society without getting some plumbers some electricians some people that can do stuff I mean how many deg college degreed kids can come out and we can find jobs for um that AI can pretty much do but guess what AI can’t do

home electrical hang steel buildings like all the things that everybody’s worried about like hey if I’m in if I’m a kid that’s trying to make the decision which I know this has nothing to do with scrap but it does in a lot of ways like in my opinion if if I’m sitting there debating well where where where’s this job Force going if if AI comes in and takes care of a lot of this these white color jobs like AI can’t do bluecollar stuff so well I’m I’m there with you I mean if if we don’t have these blueco collar workers who’s going to pay back the the student loan forgiveness programs you know great Point great Point great Point money we need more money all right let’s get back on track so so we talked about a bearish standpoint from roll steel both from lead times and pricing one thing I was surprised when I seen this uh the rebar China report um it’s actually up uh by 5% you can see it it kind of already peaked and it’s coming back down but but this is uh this is interesting to me that

that we had a pop in in rebar pricing this past yeah I I think I I still I I truly believe the story you know as we move forward and not necessarily in the short term but the medium- term like is going to be India you know what does turkey look like if you know if they can get some leadership stuff figured out um you know India is in an election year this year too right so um that’s going to be I mean I think that that market is the next you know potentially I mean and I and I say this just as just as an observer right like I when I was at is at the is convention um two weeks ago which is now Rema or whatever it’s the number of buyers it used to be the number of buyers that would come up to you and talk to you about buying scrap were mostly Chinese buyers right the number of buyers that now come up to you and are looking for to purchase scrap to me is definitely slanted more towards India right and just that Nuance change of like saying

‘ 08 versus you know this year that tells me like where like what the next push really feels like it could be on the export side so as much as we pay attention to Shanghai steel rebar I do Wonder like if we start to focus down the road of you know what does the Indian market look like now granted they don’t have the capacity to make new steel like China does yet right so that’s still a medium to longterm like conversation but you know I I think it’s going to play a role in in the medium future hey sorry everybody I got the killer in here trying to take care of me my dog but uh but no I do I do feel like that’s going to play that’s GNA play a role and I and shout out to our to our buddies too uh with Buddy the the new trading platform of scrap I feel like you know he he’s designing his software around you know the man with the metal rules and and the buyer has to pay the fee not not the seller so so you know that could be a

a huge win for for him if we start seeing a whole bunch of different buyers you know not only in India but but everywhere I start using resources like that so yeah yeah it’ be interesting so it’s interesting to see that the the Shanghai rebar price come up I’m I’m I’m wondering if this dip lasts because if you see the last time it dip like that it you know climbed back up that over that 3600 Mark we’ll see you know um I think generally this is a good time of year for that that market to move up if we can get some momentum from China but I I think their economy is definitely especially on the construction side is struggling Y no doubt well doctor uh I mean this is I’m talking to the the co-host of metal Monday so so late on me what Dr copper just went rip rare rip and roaring this month of April dude why it was on a it was it’s on a tear right I mean the more people I talked to lately they’re like Copper’s going to five bucks Copper’s going to five bucks you

know I I don’t doubt it you know it’s definitely got it’s got the it could make that run this year for sure um I mean you see the trend if the trend is your friend you know which way this thing goes right I mean yeah it came off a little bit yesterday it came off a little bit today we’ll see what the FED decides to do um at least kind of what what old Mr Powell wants to say what he wants to you know whether he’s doish or hawkish if he’s got a little dove in him you could see that thing take another run well I I gotta admit I was uh for the last 12 months you’ve been talking about $4 copper and I I just I didn’t think we were going to I mean we we touched there and we’d go back down to the 37 and you’ve you’ve been persistently bullish on copper I think it uh really you were right I I genuinely think to chat like we go to five bucks you know I think in the next before before July you know I think that it’s there if

they start trying to cut some rates they start trying to move some money you know into the election trying to you know keep the economy rolling I mean I feel like it it could get there and that being said like I I say this a lot like I think we do get there but every time copper moves up 10 20 cents I’m a seller so like I’ve watched like a good sale which looks like a home run turn into a sale over and over again so like I’m not telling you that wait for five bucks and sell I’m just saying like I feel like the momentum is going that way don’t look a gift horse in the mouth if you get a number that looks good to you that day you know take some money out the table and and keep it moving but you know I feel like you know the trend with copper is is definitely moving up no doubt and uh we’re seeing other metals move with it you know aluminum’s up a little bit and we’re seeing Zorba I think it went from around 81 cents to 84 cents over

this past month so that’s that’s a good sign for the shredders yeah this doesn’t encourage you to put a shredder in I don’t know what does everybody needs a shredder I mean if I was went or if I was any of these Shredder manufacturers I would be like hey guys has anybody seen the price zor do you know what how much money that could put in your pocket well we’re looking for sponsors yeah exactly I know I’d be out there pushing the prices over at people saying hey we’re here to put money in your pockets but I mean that should give you some at least that part of it alone should help the cause on the shred feed side we were just talking before this that the flow of scrap usually picks up you know April May June especially in regions like ours where we get a colder winter um and we’ve seen our flow increase not necessarily because the prices are you know great but just the ne this time of year and so I would think that if the shredders are trying to keep that flow momentum going then it be hard

I’d be hard pressed to see see him try and push the price down with the price absorb and moving the way it’s moving I like I like your analysis I’m I’m to the listeners out there you can’t see it but I’m grinning when he’s saying you know the shred price isn’t that great in this type of Market but all right just we’d like it higher you know just always trying to help the cost we we definitely like it a little higher yeah well well nickel’s another one I mean it’s up 17% this month what that’s just crazy to me yeah that’s uh that was an unexpected one but you know what I mean Nicholls up and and guess what I I haven’t seen a a penny on the 304 stainless side right which I think that’s the Traders moving the nickel Market because you’re not it’s not FL flowing through necessarily to the you know to your stainless grades near as I can tell you might be getting a little bit more on your your your high temp Alloys any of your head nickel alloy scrap but I’m not seeing it necessarily on the

on the lower grade the 304 316 400 series um stainless pricing Le on my end that’s a lot of good buyers in the stainless market right there discipline yeah so if you if you’re a buyer of stainless and you want and your price is up hey out me on LinkedIn I actually got a some good guys I deal with so but I’m all but I’m but I am uh you know you gotta keep them Ms you know all right so this is my last chart and I promised you we’d end on a very bullish standpoint so so here it is so what we’re looking at is is a a pattern in in the charting world of stocks and this is the Commodities uh price index and basically it’s showing that hey what Civil War post World War I Cold War we just keep hitting new highs in in Commodities in general right now this this we’re fairly low on on the Commodities price index and with a lot of room to to project potentially move up so this would say over the next decade Commodities are going to be the thing what are your

thoughts here and that’s all in like dollar terms right so like if you’re measuring a dollar copper versus $4 doll copper and does it take into consideration inflation well I think is it inflation adjusted pricing it’s just saying what is what is copper today plus or minus percentage right what is uh all the different Commodities but wouldn’t it be interesting to run that thing out like at like inflation adjusted math and say like what really could it be if you know do you see where I’m going yeah well I think I think it’s I think that’s why it’s it’s projected to go so much higher is because as we keep inflating dollar if we truly do have stack inflation you know all commodity prices are going to go higher and higher and so if we get this this runup like we could in the next you know they’re saying that there the the prediction is Commodities may become the best performing asset class over the next 20 years well it’s been one of the the most underinvested Comm one of the most underinvested classes like even on the stock market side so I feel

like just like anything right I mean the trend is your friend but also like you’re when you’re out there looking for like what’s a good buy it’s what everybody else doesn’t think is a good buy today and so for for a long time you know base metal Commodities have kind of flown under the radar which is what’s created that and let’s say you know um heavy regulatory environment right you combine heavy regulatory environment with an underinvested class of which would be like your base Metals you’re going to have mining Supply down going into a super energy intense um like I was read an article the other day and they were talking about like the next big AI trade is energy right because you’re G it takes a crazy amount of energy and computing power to run these AI models these AI you know um supercomputers so they’re you know you got a certain amount of people that are betting on like uranium and nuclear a certain amount of people that are betting on copper and the electrical grid and where does this energy come from so I could I feel like you know obviously

nobody wants a war but looks like whenever there is one that’s what really pushes Commodities right um I think that this energy trade could be that thing combined with whatever War whatever you know these guys are you know it feels like the direction we’re going I I it’s a believable chart I’m GNA believe it when I see it type of guy but I do feel like you know it’s it’s not impossible and it feels like it’s probably more in the realm of possible well I think in general when you have stagflation or inflation of any kind I think the closer you can be to owning the owning an asset you’re going to be more well positioned and so whether it’s Commodities whether it’s real estate whether it’s gold you’re you’re going to be so I got a question for you and for those people that don’t know your background that well like you have a a background in the fuel business right it’s what your dad right I mean that’s your family family business right so you understand energy you understand you know the fuel side so when I this is because I own

a trucking company right so I pay attention to the price of fuel and because I figure that into my Freight rate so when I look across the board and it’s been a long time really since the price of diesel has been less than the price of gas right I mean it was in I mean especially like during Co when it really became more of a trucking Trucking M you know a heavy Freight intense game because there’s less cars on the road but definitely more trucks moving Goods all over right medical supplies and whatever else so diesel has always been you know front run gasoline for I mean sometimes a dollar a gallon higher right and so over here in Idaho we’re looking at like probably a 10 to 20 cent discount on the price of diesel over gasoline which tells me because diesel is so it’s it’s so heavily used in construction you know you know big equipment Trucking that to me means there’s less of a demand for diesel than there has been in a long time relative to gasoline so that should be an indicator for anybody that pays attention to what

going on out there that there’s definitely less big equipment movement there’s definitely Less trucks movement moving right so that’s I’m probably not helping my bullish case right now but I look at that as an indicator of um you better look out because this economy is slowing down well well diesel is an is kind of an offgrade that’s made when you’re making gasoline right so everybody everybody wants to sell gas gasoline because that’s where that’s your main product but when you’re like you said when when when there’s not a lot of gasoline being used but there’s high demand for diesel that diesel price has to go up inversely there’s a high demand for for gasoline but a lower demand for diesel then then you see this kind of inverse market so yeah it’s it’s basically saying hey there’s a lot of people and we know this we by the data people are doing a lot of entertainment a lot of traveling but they’re probably not building the house right now they’re probably not you know building a bridge right now so yeah good good read my friend yeah when I see four five four do

five diesel right then I’m like you know usually that means heavy Industries rocking and rolling things are moving um trucks are on the road things are because there’s demand for it they can they can support the price today at 375 you know I feel like your ass better better be get your house in order because you know that’s that’s I mean it’s great on the trucking side if you’ve got Freight and it kind of helps you counteract you know the cost increases you’ve had everywhere else but it’s also your means your Freight rates are lower too because there’s less Freight available and everybody’s margins are getting squeezed on the other side of it so we well I think a couple years ago we seen Tech go to recession they did a whole bunch of cuts you know now I think you’re seeing Automotive Tesla just laid off 14,000 people Walmart’s laying off some people in the farm like the healthcare CVS just had a huge earnings Miss so I think you’re starting to see those next tiers of industries that are that are starting to cut and they I think they all realize

it’s they got to cut some bodies to to save that margin so absolutely all right I think that’s it Bulls versus Bears trade them if you got them sit on them if you want to that’s entirely up to you hopefully this information has helped somebody along the lines make a good trade either on the buy side or the sell side um Chad you make everybody smarter we appreciate you man so um keep doing what you do I appreciate it Brett talk to you soon thanks sir