Welcome to A Scrap Life Podcast
A podcast solely focused on the hustlers, grinders, operators, and business owners who live and breathe the scrap metal industry every day.
Host: Brett
Guest: Chad
Introduction
Brett (0:02):
Welcome to A Scrap Life! Here we go, January 2025—Bulls versus Bears. The end of 2024 was a tough slog on the ferrous trading side, but non-ferrous treated us well. I think ferrous in 2025 is going to get some love. Chad, welcome back! What are your thoughts on 2025?
Chad (1:02):
Thanks, Brett! Glad to be here for another year. Let’s dive into 2025 predictions. Do I think scrap prices will be higher or lower than 2024? I lean bullish.
Brett (1:29):
Higher—alright! What about by the end of the year? Higher or lower than now?
Chad (1:42):
Lower than now.
Brett (1:48):
Alright, I’ll play devil’s advocate. Why bearish?
Steel and Automotive Industry Outlook
Chad (2:02):
The automotive industry is going to struggle in 2025. Tesla and BYD are dominating, while the Big Three automakers face challenges. Car loans are at an all-time high, and customers are holding onto their cars longer. Autonomous driving and robotics will be a big theme in 2025, but that doesn’t necessarily benefit the traditional steel industry.
Brett (2:54):
Interesting. Tesla uses more aluminum than steel, which might be bullish for aluminum. But integrated steelmakers like US Steel and Cliffs will face pressure as their major customers—automakers—buy less.
Interest Rates and Commodities
Chad (5:00):
I think interest rates will be lower by the end of the year. If that happens, it could be a positive for the automotive market. Lower rates might encourage people to replace older cars with new ones.
Brett (7:57):
But for rates to go lower, inflation and commodity prices would also have to drop. Do you think the dollar will be stronger or weaker by year-end?
Chad (8:45):
Stronger.
Brett (9:03):
We’re seeing things through different lenses. I think if we drill domestically, oil prices could come down, positively impacting the automotive market.
US Steel and Politics
Brett (15:03):
The US Steel deal being blocked seems more political than economic. I think the Biden administration is playing a long game with China, but it might hurt US Steel.
Chad (17:08):
I agree. The deal would have brought much-needed capital to US Steel. Now, they might face challenges keeping up with infrastructure demands without a bailout.
Market Trends
Brett (20:54):
Dow Jones is down significantly month-over-month. Aluminum is also down 4%. Pig iron has dropped from $460 to $446.50. It’s not looking great.
Chad (21:52):
It’s tough for ferrous markets, but I believe we’re set up for a good bull run later this year.
Weather and January Trade
Brett (29:06):
Cold weather across the US could affect scrap flow positively in January. December’s slowdown might mean consumers like Nucor will need to restock inventory.
Chad (30:49):
I agree. This could lead to better pricing in January, but February and March might not be as strong.
Closing Thoughts
Brett (33:06):
Chad, you’ve got a strong opinion, and I respect that! We might not agree on everything, but that’s what makes this podcast fun.
Chad (33:19):
Thanks, Brett! I appreciate the discussion. Here’s to a productive 2025.
Brett (34:05):
Happy New Year to everyone listening! Let’s make 2025 a great year in the scrap metal industry.