A Scrap Life – March 2025 Episode
Hosted by Brett Ehart
Special Guest: Chad Ellerbrock

[Intro Music]

Narrator:
Welcome to A Scrap Life, a podcast solely focused on the hustlers, grinders, operators, and business owners who live and breathe the scrap metal industry every day.
Here’s your host—Brett Ehart!

[Applause]

It’s a Good Month to Be a Bull
Brett:
All right, we’re back! March 2025, and this is a good month to be a bull in the scrap world. I’ve got the man, the myth, the legend—Chad Ellerbrock—here to tell us how good it really is.

The markets are just starting to trade, getting kicked off. We’re recording this on a Tuesday, hoping to have it live by Wednesday. By then, some of you might already be trading scrap.

Chad:
It’s just the year for the bull. We’ve got a couple good markets—things aren’t looking bad!

Brett:
You’re saying we got a chance—and that’s all scrap guys need. Give us a window of opportunity and we’ll be in San Diego partying like it’s Vegas!

Chad:
Strip clubs, big vibes, extra change in everyone’s pocket!

Optimism, Machines & Prime Material
Brett:
You’ve always been optimistic—back when Trump was elected, and even now with the ups and downs.

I remember when we were talking about putting in our Zato shredder. People questioned us—”Why do that? Why not just focus elsewhere?” We had some reasons: tires, other goals. And I still haven’t shredded a tire through that thing yet. But I’m going to!

I didn’t anticipate how much prime would take off after we bought that machine. I’m glad I got it—it’s doing its job.

Quick shoutout to Zato—you didn’t sponsor this podcast… but hey, maybe we can work out some free blades for the next round?

Prime Prices & Pig Iron Insights
Brett:
Let’s talk about prime. It was up about $50 last month. Are we looking at another bump like February?

Chad:
When I think prime, I start with pig iron. Last month it traded at around $424/metric ton. Now it’s $460—up over 8%. And there’s been strong volume in pig iron and scrap substitutes.

It’s been a supply-driven market—no question.

Weather, Scrap Flows & Mill Inventory
Chad:
Why is it supply-driven?
Weather. We had a rough winter with multiple cold snaps across North America. Scrap flows were terrible.

Brett:
Yeah, I’ve been cleaning out closets just to keep the lights on. Our guys were yelling in meetings: “We need loads—let’s go!”

Chad:
Same story across the industry. Plus, many publicly traded mills lowered inventory to boost cash during weak earnings last year. Combine that with bad weather? Boom—supply-driven surge.

Both new steel and scrap prices are up significantly.

Steel Prices & Hot Roll Futures
Brett:
We’re hearing from fab and laser shops—they’re seeing 18% to 20% hikes from suppliers. Some grades are up 40–50% YoY.

Chad:
Hot roll futures? Last month it was $740. Today? $915—a 23–24% increase. If this continues, we could easily go from $700 to $1,400.

Brett:
50% up is not unrealistic!

Chad:
Let’s keep it in perspective though. Crude steel production is at 78–79%—same as 6 months ago when hot roll was $700.

So while it feels bullish, we should temper our expectations based on real demand.

Lead Times & Inventory Planning
Brett:
You’re trying to keep us from getting too excited, huh?

Chad:
Lead times are 6–7 weeks for hot roll. That’s a bullish sign. When that happens, mills start buying scrap to cover future melts.

Inventory + lead times = pricing trends. Longer lead times with solid melt schedules = stronger scrap values.

Brett:
You taught me that! Lead times are a leading indicator.

Shred Feed Spike & Scrap Elasticity
Chad:
Shred feed rose from $192 to $222/net ton—a 16% jump in February.

More shredders = more competition = better prices for sellers. But material is scarce.

Brett:
Come spring, shredders usually catch up. But right now? Feels tight. It’s going to be a competitive few months for shred feed.

Chad:
Scrap is elastic. The more you pay, the more you get. And that’s what we’re seeing—big moves to stimulate flow.

Copper Moves & Market Skepticism
Brett:
Dr. Copper’s up too—$4.23 to $4.56, up 8% month over month. I think we leg back up. I don’t think we roll over.

Chad:
Let’s hit one more bullish point—8020 Turkey is up from $355 to $369/MT (4%).

But it’s not as bullish as we might hope. The gap between U.S. and global steel demand is widening.

Global Demand, Dollar Strength & Tariffs
Chad:
Turkey demand, European rebar markets, dollar strength—it all factors in. Rarely do you see U.S. #1 Heavy Melt equal 8020 Turkey pricing. That’s where we’re at.

How long does that last? Depends on:

Dollar strength

Inflation

Tariffs

We haven’t even touched tariffs yet.

Tariffs, Imports & Domestic Advantage
Chad:
We’ve got 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports—and China. That’s going to raise costs.

Brett:
If it was on the water at 12:01? You’re paying that 25%. That benefits domestic scrap, at least temporarily.

Chad:
270,000 tons/month came from Canada & Mexico in 2024. That’s a big deal.

There’s lots of uncertainty, but I see:

Lower rates

Continued Dow pressure

Oil at $68/barrel

Potential upside for PGMs and hard assets

Hedging Strategy & Operational Insights
Chad:
March looks good. But supply-driven markets have skinny legs—they don’t last. Can demand take over?

If I were a betting man, I’d hedge for April. Bushling futures are at $530. If you have extra material, consider locking that in now.

Brett:
That’s why we love having you here, man. I’m always focused on getting scrap through the system—operations. But you bring strategy and insight.

Chad:
And I love poking fun at your scrap flows!

Brett:
Flows are always down! Just trying to keep the lights on while you guys take food from our fridge.

Spring Rush & Final Thoughts
Chad:
I was in Ohio last week—52° and sunny after weeks of cold. Trucks were lined up at the shredder. Spring is here!

Brett:
And yet, they’ll say, “There’s no scrap here, man.” Gotta love this business—everyone plays their hand close.

Big News Coming Soon
Brett:
Hope everyone has a successful March! Nick and I teased it—Metal Monday has some cool things coming for the scrap community.

We’ve got resources for operators, insight for planners, and a lot of fun coming your way. Stay tuned!

Chad:
Appreciate your time, Brett.

Brett:
You too, man. Have a great day!

[Outro Music]