Metal Monday #11 with Nick and Eddie, March 15, 2021

We have a special guest Eddie Orensten from Alliance Steel on discussing if we're in a super cycle or if things will go back down. Take a listen and share with your friends.

Transcription

all right welcome everybody i am sitting here with a special guest from where are you at are you in ohio columbus ohio okay um i’m here with eddie how you doing eddie you want to introduce yourself real quick to our audience uh eddie ornstein here with the alliance recycling group out of minneapolis very good we are really productive by need yeah there you go we appreciate you joining us today hey um we like to use this to give people a quick market update and you’re the expert as far as i’m concerned on the brass coppers and probably many many other things how you feeling what do you feel like copper is going to do you think we’re going to it’s going to hang on or do you think we’re in due for the four dollars is the is the new bottom uh we seem to be testing the highs again you know 415. we got up to 419 couldn’t get past 420. uh markets all the way around do not seem to want to go down the demand that is there isn’t at this scrap the scrap is short and demand is is firm

and it’s not only just firm in china i mean it’s firm in the the us all the way through hey i know there’s copper being sold into greece copper being sold into russia and the europeans got their fill here back a ways and they’ve kind of backed off a little bit but the supply isn’t there last week and again i don’t know if we talk spreads or anything on on this or not but i saw some people ahead but hey last week i saw spreads at some places between minus 47 and minus 53. uh those consumers a day might have widened an extra three cents but we’re able to do some uh some buying what material i’m sorry i’m looking at for uh number two copper okay yup my mistake because most people if you look at the the periodicals and stuff they’re looking at uh what 57 to 62 under the ramp a lot of people are still shy to make the uh the export packages so that’s somewhat the reason we have the wider numbers those that can go to china are receiving uh i believe somewhere around minus 40 minus 42

cnf if they can make the package great yeah i mean i i feel like you hit it right on the head like you know four is our new bottom you know and you know where did we get we got to 433 is that the top we’ve got today i know we actually were uh four i actually wrote it down we were actually somewhere around 436 when we crack back down to about 409 uh look i still put the target the highest we were at ever was about 462 and change i’m expecting them to keep taking out highs that’s why i think a lot of people have thought like 10 000 on lme and two and 450 on comex seems to be reachable yeah love to see it i think i think possibly go ahead and get there i think we get there you know yeah i mean if you look at the export prices for bear bright and number one uh they’re really as competitive as the midwest markets so those items can still flow export easily the number two i believe some people are actually starting to sort a little bit you know

me and my sorting uh situation when you’re looking at go ahead no i’m listening to you you keep going oh there’s about a 30 to 35 premium for you to sort your copper out okay so more people should be doing that if they want to like i say if if number two copper is going for 62 and you get the upgraded items being the tin plated being the enameled uh being the under gauge number one items like that uh you’re probably looking anywhere sales from minus 30 to minus 40. gotcha what are you seeing for still over there for steel yeah for your your iron pricing over there the pricing i’m just uh not up on i’ll tell you that you’re dealing with just the red metals so it was up uh 70. it’s a little difficult out of the midwest so i really don’t follow the iron prices the big other one is aluminum yeah aluminum they tried to beat it down and it came back stronger than ever uh we’ve now seen uh premiums what they’re up to 1870 today they jumped another penny and a half okay and we had been

here what uh two months ago we were sitting around uh plus 12. okay and we’ve seen that taken out export on aluminum is excellent uh what i’ve seen with the brasses and type of situation is the exporters were very strong seven to eight cents over domestics here but two and a half or three months ago then all of a sudden the exporters dropped their numbers or they didn’t drop they stayed sideways and in order for domestic consumers to get material they had to raise their prices three to five cents a pound gotcha and now it looks like the export numbers to the domestic numbers are almost on par okay that’s good actually it is good especially you can make the chinese package for yellow brass the chinese package versus the non-chinese package is about six to seven cents lower yeah i’ve seen that um okay well i mean things are things are still looking good and we’ll see where iron goes um we are hearing rumblings on our end that some people are trying to talk it down in april i i don’t really buy it still um well they talked it down

in uh february yeah exactly i don’t quite buy it doesn’t make sense to me but uh i mean we’ll see what happens for our fairest prices gets out of colorado this week what’s that well i i denver had like four feet of snow or something yeah i saw that this weekend um and then we had frozen up a week or two ago so the you know weather still plays its seasonal part yeah it can affect it for sure over here and in boise it feels like springs here right now but well we had 60 degrees here which was uh you know fantastic yep i will say the most people have excuse me your regular suppliers seem to be selling you on a regular basis there are some holdups out there that have some inventory but they’re few and far in between with all the major uh large corporations they have to sell pretty much every month they’re not going to sit and hold material for 10 years like a couple guys have sold me and i knew they were sitting on stuff for 10 years uh 10 years was one person who had a

load of radiators for me yeah dealer who weighed out of 40 000 pounds for 10 years well he finally sold it then finally sold it you know he hit it right back trading on me but we definitely see potentially this the super cycle here i mean uh i did hear manufacturing stepped up a little bit our industrial accounts seem to be picking up a little bit yeah it feels like busier over here same with with our manufacturing accounts it seems like a lot of projects are about to really pop off over here on the new buildings the new the old old demos the the manufacturers are just they can’t they don’t have enough hours in the day or enough employees to fill the spots you know so they’re all good problems to have as a country you know oh yes the good news also with the covers though it’s like you got all these infrastructure projects coming up you got all the electrical vehicles electrical vehicle manufacturing around the world so you’ll have the stronger demand for the nickel and the copper and there just doesn’t seem to be a real end to it

at the moment i mean for the demand but where’s the supply going to come my understanding from the minds they have been able to really make any new minds and the biggest thing also pushing this i believe is just the government i mean how can they keep interest rates uh what they’re gonna take until 2023 when we’re at five dollars copper by then yeah something’s gonna have to change you would think but i mean we’re around we’re around for the ride exactly there’s nothing i can really do i just keep you know adjusting our pricing and try to get as much material as we can in here so we can get it to the next you know the next point in the process and then it gets turned into new material again you know we saw some prices jumped what four cents a pound just this morning from friday yep well cool hey thanks for joining us today eddie um we’ll make sure to get you on a little more regularly okay sounds good hey thanks nick thanks buddy bye