Metal Monday #9 April 6 with Nick and Brett

April 6th, 2020: This week, Nick and Brett talk to guest Peter Thomas and get his perspective of the market's movements. Peter is a senior vice president at Zaner Precious Metals, a division of Zaner Financial Group. He currently manages a global cash desk which handles refiners, recyclers, mining operations, and coin and bullion companies. His insightful opinions drawn from his 35 years of metals trading are frequently in demand by Bloomberg News, The Guardian, Hard Assets, Kitco, Futures magazine and other news outlets. Follow him on Twitter at @metalzaner

Transcription

okay thanks for joining us guys we’re sitting here on zoom with Pete Thomas I don’t Pete I’m doing good I’m I’m in the corona lockdown mode here at home like just pretty much like everybody else downtown Chicago is a ghost town you know the year over in Chicago we’re in the financial district we’ve been in the center of downtown Chicago for 40 years okay you want to give us a quick background on you and your company sure I’m a second-generation floor trader I started on the floor filling paper and silver pit and went through the bunker honey here a fill paper for him and then moved upstairs and started a clearing operation my own and subsequently moved over to int LFC stone which was the 49th based dealer in the world and went from stone over to was fortunate enough to be able to join Zener and we’ve been going great guns ever since you know I I miss being in the in the Treasury Building but it’s alright I’ve been enjoying it for some time now pain is a family-owned business we run an international law metals desk that covers

gold silver copper platinum palladium and occasionally when we’ve lost their mind will trade a little rhodium and but we hit the markets pretty wild but you think you call it what’s the bid offer oh we’re 600 why’d you like what today is like down two thousand dollars three thousand eight thousand dollars spread I was almost back you know India yeah what am I doing with this you know what why did I find this do you know oh my god you know but it’s been fun you know it’s been really interesting we’ve been we invented a platform decade and a half ago for hedging and all the guys in our business because the contracts are so big a lot of our guys don’t have an exact twenty five thousand pound allotment per load so they needed an offset so we we took copper down to the pound so a guy can head exactly whatever he’s loaded into truck man and we sit down with our becomes difficult to hit and you really have to have a lot of background a lot of technical work has to be done so that you could enter the market

at a profitable point so we have a group that does that and and it’s it’s worked out really really well for us but Pete not to cut you off but so I’m a third-generation scrap guy and a lot of people that will watch this don’t edge right oh yeah I’ve ever hedged is platinum group metals because by catalytic converters and we buy a decent enough amount that we if we don’t hedge we can get caught off that way yeah and so I that’s the only experience I have as a scrap recycler Athene sure know you and I kind of communicated back and forth so I would love I mean just for you to expand as much just for my knowledge yes for anybody that watches this and just explain to the average scrap guy that doesn’t head today sure how he could how he can hedge or she can hedge and right the advantages disadvantages of it and kind of what that market looks like and you know that I think that’s that that would give everybody a ton of value absolutely and and you know what the thing is that we look

at the entire market too and and so for example Ecuador came out today and said oh by the way we’re shutting down all on mines I just totally unannounced really then Peru announced yesterday before that they were shutting down Napper is the second largest producer of copper in the world and everybody went okay so then we scrambled over and looked at the residual copper in the warehouses in China all right and we said wait a minute they’re there they’re down about 4% so we’re seeing the mines slow down production but we’re also seeing the stockpiling go down because the ports are closed Chinese ports are still closed you know their ships bobbing up and down on anchor now three weeks with millions of dollars of product sitting out there it hasn’t come in so you’re getting this Bazaar have been flowing you guys especially you know you’re on the ground you guys don’t see that big global picture well and that’s what’s been tossing you guys around then it on these strange waves one minute we have these day announced for example about four o’clock this morning they came out and said oh by

the way Europe is awash in basements we have more zinc that we’ve had since I wrote it down we’re on four point three percent in stock files across here we have more zinc than we’ve had since the beginning of August nickel 10 so all these industrial plating metals that are that are going to be used in conjunction with copper mm-hmm there’s just we just have tons of it around so what happens well we feel that pressure right and when we see that pressure and we know guys like yourself are gonna have to be delivering you’re expecting loads coming in you know where do you want to be you want to be sure you want to sell that market into that pressure with the idea that I own 60 80 a hundred tons of copper right now I sell it on on my a tornado account which means I’ve sold it I’m short as its referred to as that market comes down from the pressure of the inventories and the lack of usage we which is critical right now your stuff for you guys that I want you to think about right now our

sales in China are down seventy nine point one percent eighty you know close to eighty percent of their car sales I just know more and they don’t there’s no projection for when they’re gonna start again now if you look at the real numbers and you guys know this better than I do 18 to 49 clouds is the top end you see them out of copper in your average vehicle alright you look at that you go wait a minute they’re not selling any cars so we know the demand is gonna be extremely low so that pressure is going to continue to come into that copper market at 250 and 260 I was I was screaming at people on the air on our podcast all our heads just going guys start selling you what inventory got and what your forward obligations are a lot of guys will come in and have orders from from construction companies from electrical wire twisted wire strand wire users all of that going out even going out to December sometimes right now that’s a different situation but yeah you know so they’ll go out and they’ll say well jeez you know

you know if it’s gonna be lower I think we’re look I don’t think we’re gonna we’re gonna do anything but stay short and just let these prices go down so that what we own as it’s losing its value we’ll be making on our short side our account we’ll be making the money in that you don’t make if you’re hedging properly you don’t make a profit you should make a penny anybody tells you that they’re gonna make you money hedging hang up the this run I mean it’s essentially a way to preserve the value in your material that you’ve already committed to purchase right needed to deliver you’re just preserving the value in a while it’s marking it’s in your possession well exactly right very well put here’s the other thing that’ll make your business grow there’s two sides to this you got a guy comes in let’s say we’re trading I’m looking to see if we’re gonna test two bucks if we test two bucks you and I are probably talking well we’ll do an overview for you guys and kind of give you some idea where we think it could go if it

takes that out let’s say for example somebody comes in and says you know we’ve been doing business I know you guys are second generation you’ve been around for a long time you’ve got a manufacturer guy making washing machines comes in says hey I’m gonna need hundred tons of copper over the next quarter all right and and you’re like okay what should I be doing well we look at me go we’re at a base here there’s a fair amount of product but not a lot maybe we should buy Oh going out you know with the idea that then I can I can bid on that contract that I’m gonna deliver to my company is gonna deliver to that contract I’m gonna give him an estimate of a price that I’m gonna deliver at now you could lock it in there’s no guessing anymore you bought you’re buying it at 2 bucks yes you you’re obligated to deliver it let’s say to two quarter to thirty right mm-hmm you don’t care you know it doesn’t want the market to go down at that point as long as you have the ability to source the material

well I mean absolutely but but the thing is that that at that point though remember you’re rock solid now you don’t care what them you don’t care what the whole idea is when you go to sleep at night you want to go to sleep at night you want to be thinking about where the bargains gonna be when you get up in the morning right yeah so the idea is that what you want to do is what’s technically referred to as bated neutral you don’t care whether it goes up you don’t care whether it goes down you fulfilled your obligation by buying it and at a lower price and you buy it on a hedging margin which is 4% yeah so what that does for you is now you’ve got that cash to work with in other fields you want to buy some more cats by way you got more money on hand right you know what your yield I mean you could probably tell me in your sleep what your yields gonna be from the load of cats and then you could hedge tattoo you know you can sell those pgms done you know

it’s and it allows you to use the tornado trading platform the hedging platform and to mitigate all that risk throughout all the levels of your of your company whether you’re buying and or selling so let’s walk through it let’s walk through it just for just to just as granular as basic for for anybody out there say I got a scrapyard and I bought two loads of copper a month maybe a little number one and load of number two plus I bicep insulated copper wire and whatever just just so I can just a like it says this is much for my understanding as it is for the audience you match it and watched you know yeah where do you went to pay for give me the knife let’s say today I bought it for $1 a pound right I bought number one for a dollar and I bought no this is just arbitrary numbers how about number one for a dollar and I bought number two for say 20 cents last so I paid 80 cents of 80 cents on okay come on so am i right today is where it’s at 222 Twitter so

I go ahead glam check so let’s say I anticipated by about the same amount every month right month on month so from just the average guy standpoint would I then call you or their access to tornado platform and I’m gonna buy 40,000 pounds of number one and buy 40,000 pounds of – great my anticipated sale prices or am I just hedging it off of the market that day so now won’t you it’s down I get coverage so the way that you actually say in PGM silver and gold yeah that’s what to do all right in copper copper and silver are sort of like the cats they’re the kind of skitty market I mean they they’ll drop and run just bull at the drop of a hat so what we have to do is before you jump on that load and sell it all right or at that point we have to take a look at the market and see where you are in relationship to the market that’s very very important if this market is tremendously weak and and you’re taking product in right you want to be selling because that price is

gonna go down and you stand a good chance of losing some money if we’re seeing good potential for example the infrastructure bill let’s take a look at that all right we have to be aware of what’s going on in the world today in order to protect you and to protect your company all right and if all of a sudden we see a solid push for that bill to pass let me tell you something Carmen’s gonna go from 218 the to 80 first up there’s gonna be no in between it’s just gonna keep running and we don’t want to sell your logo if we’re gonna be walking into that so we’re what we’ll do is we’ll sit down and we’ll take an old look at the overview of what’s going on right now today we know that Chile’s main mines 1 and number 2 are closed we know that patio is closed we know that Ecuador is closed right we know that no product is going into China because the ports are still closed I would not want you to sell here I would not want you to sell here because we’ve everyone seen all

the bad news it’s in the market we’ve broken 40 50 cents right let’s see if it holds a little bit or if it’s gonna get weaker you and I will come to that decision at this time right if we’re looking at 15 to 16 and in the volumes good and the markets been holding well I don’t want to expose you to get short right in there you know there’s a good chance that with everything as is horrible as it is that this market has only broke in 50 cents let’s say and you know if I don’t want to see if it’s gonna if it’s gonna go much lower why not just leave it the way it is do it the way you always do it all right on the flip side if you’re gonna be buying loads because you know you have obligations in the future and we’re and we’re down around these lows and we start to see the coronavirus numbers come down and we start to see Wuhan we start to see me York Italy we have to watch Spain we have to watch we start to see those morbidity numbers starting

to come down and we start to see that cycle getting a little better hey you’re gonna see a rally here you’re gonna see a good rally here maybe we should be buying out into the future a little bit to mitigate the possibility of you paying more for that in the future that make sense yeah okay okay good good so that would be basically the the scrapyard the guys that’s selling the material whether it’s the owner or the the purchasing manager wherever he’s he’s direct dealing directly with you absolutely okay enter these enter this in I’m gonna be sitting on 85 pounds of copper and we’re gonna you know might be and here’s the problem you know because we’ve been doing this so long you know people always panic we say you know don’t train because we can’t some bad make your money doesn’t matter he’s got better because you know what you’re gonna be with us for 20 years we you know we want to make sure that you’ve opened the doors every day you turn the lights up and if we’re telling you to put a position on in going into some type

of political event we’re not doing you a service we’re not you know we’re not giving you that value-added that’s that’s what we’re here for you know that’s what we do you know so taking all of that into account I hope I’m not making this sound too complicated no I mean I mean that was one of the reasons why we wanted to do this is like I said I I’m always on a quest for any of our businesses is to acquire knowledge I mean that here and I the reason I like the video the video side of as it is I’m getting knowledge and we can pass it on to everybody else you know absolutely absolutely know that helps you promote your business so be it I mean oh yeah you know the more the merrier but the reality of it is is whether they use you or somebody else or whatever just the understanding the ability of how to be a better operator or how to you know you know take some of the risk out of your business or whatever that is like that’s you know that’s super important and whether you’re

enough happy to serve any business for that matter well and here’s another thing and both of you should consider too is this if if you add stability to the global business to what’s going on in American copper if we have more guys hedging and mitigating risk that’s adds stability across the board to the market you have a better market if you know you have guys not going belly-up and you have a firm strong market the business is going to do nothing but get bigger because it’s firmer it’s stronger the equity the money is rolling through it quicker I mean these are all very important things that are going to influence you so what you’re doing now by creating a video to show people globally what’s occurring in copper locally what’s going on tools that they can use for hedging to mitigate risk all of these things will eventually come back to in a myriad of ways let’s see what you take on it I mean from ideal and this is just just my experience but what’s your take on it from people that say I the way I hedge is by buying as

the market comes down they’ll buy and so you average you’re averaging your price down right organically versus actually say using a hedging tool and knowing that all right just say I my edge is I get had the ability to keep the lights on and buy $1 copper just like I can buy $2 copper so then when they do get that bounce I’m in the material yep at the correct price you know and hey look at economics 101 right dollar cost averaging DCA everybody learns it you know why cuz it works no that’s just how it is the the question is here with dollar cost averaging is at what level do you start buying you know if we’re in a in a boiling hot market when we went through recently when we went through 220 and started headed for 240 if you’ve got in a way of that you know you got hurt I mean that market was running the last thing you wanted to do is start selling a product if you want to you know start accumulating because I knew we were going to 40 to 50 so we’re going to three bucks

I mean we’re on the cusp of it it had to smell the three bucks today if it really did yeah you know it was on the trajectory yeah oh yeah I like that and and I but you know what it and once it hit that 280 remember it was tickling 280 285 magnet for it’s the volume started coming down and I was like wait a bit less people are willing to buy up here you know and I resented I looked at it I said you know what we refer to as open interest you know the amount of people that are involved in those in the contracts that are hedging it we see that open interest coming down that markets going down not a matter of if for maybe less people are putting money in the market so you can’t gonna pull back we sit and we we put out what we call an SOS to all of our guys and said be careful here the market feels heavy don’t overcommit right now you know if if you want to do a 20 or 30 percent hedge right in here if it goes to three

bucks okay you’re out fifteen cents you know but if it goes to two fifty you’re out thirty cents so it’s a two-to-one risk reward ratio and as it turned out we we happen to be right that time yeah you feel like that on the scrap and it’s I mean we pride ourselves on the recycling and the green side of the business but it is a lot of us are especially guys like Nick and I that what we do is we’re basically commodities traders oh okay with the production side of it as if you know a separate side but I mean we spend our days buying and selling and buying all right that’s what consumes a lot of my a lot of my day on the scrap side of our business first it does though it’s more of a trading and and as that gets more sophisticated it’s raining out of it I mean it feels like that’s the trajectory that’s where it’s going is the more sophisticated versus just dollar cost averaging buy some more scribe let’s get the price down and try and work our way back into it and you

know what you know where most of its gonna right here on your phone yeah on tornado we have guys I mean they’re they’re back in the truck up and load it and they’re sitting there on their phone doing their hedge and and that’s it you know and and they’re done you know the loads been sold as a hedge it’s been made or the you know or the or they bought it before they bought a cheaper and they’re selling the load in it and they’re getting the cash you know input into their of which will bank where it needs same-day gonna be cool with bringing unp to kind of talk about the market talk about copper talk about the P GM’s is our customers we talk about the market every Monday we say hey it’s dad great seems like every Monday where that gets down with everything going on Monday like it’s up 20 cents from last Monday but yeah well well reel that you give us that worldwide insight that helps me personally and then we can share that with our catalytic converter customers or oh it’s great that’s great you know you

know let me tell you guys so when I saw when Putin and Nicolas got in that beef let me the greatest traitor in the world and medals is Putin anybody tells you different is is is an idiot all right this guy is like the fox in a henhouse man I mean when when those Siberian mines are cranking and you and I both know that what that means right mm-hmm and they’re going and all of a sudden he goes you know I think the state-run banks should have some of that palladium you know and you go because you know we’re going higher bay because he he’s taking it right off the bargain and in the meantime he’s long the market in Switzerland and nobody noticed he’s got positions on he’s just breaking it in everybody and I feel that’s the same thing he’s doing in oil right now oh you caught you nailed it dude absolutely Evo happening very very astute call it’s exactly right and and oh by the way guys that’s what your trade no stuff and anybody that doesn’t understand that if you’re in the copper business you’re in the

diesel business there’s no in between your both your moving product and you better keep an eye on that needle that says E or RF because there’s money going out either way there so that’s very astute of you and that’s exactly what happened and they kissed and made up the other day and we went from 19 dollars to 25 dollars a barrel two days and everybody went what happened you know single day increase in history yeah like who would have percent this morning you know so very good call and and I think that goes to what you’re saying which is that international flavor really does percolate down to you guys it influences what you do and it goes as far as this we have probably the greatest presidents we’ve ever had in their life that he when he said okay we’re gonna shut everything down except we’re gonna give him exclusions to scrappers and everybody went and he does oh by the way I make buildings you know I know that steel and copper and aluminum what are the backbone of this nation we need to have that moving I was so glad when I

saw that exemption comes or I said thank God my my people can still earn a living you know 100 percent yeah I mean you can you can poopoo are all the essential this essential that that you want to but there’s a few industries and that really are say the backbone of the infrastructure side and there’s a lot of there’s a lot of industries out there that this don’t get the recognition and now I’m not saying even about the scrap business we you know we are we are we obviously mostly wouldn’t love it for what it is but oh yeah there’s a lot most people are like you man most guys are second third generation yeah yeah oh yeah they love it absolutely but but you know let’s just save it don’t pooh-pooh it either I mean well what you guys do is vital to the health of this nation and you were recognized by the White House for the first time so it’s a big deal for it’s a big deal for the industry yeah here so let’s let’s pivot a little bit pure heat and give us your your outlook what’s your

you know your 30 day 60 90 you know on the material the metals that here you’re the most familiar with well right now let’s go over my I we do an awful lot of gold but I don’t think it’s what I want to discuss here I want to drill down to what you guys are used in day in and day out okay let’s stay with the P GM’s I do a lot of stuff for Bloomberg on pgms and and let’s let’s talk about something that hasn’t been touched upon enough right now which is the which is the green initiative of the Communist Chinese party the green initiative for some reason China said you know what one point thing about this number one point two million people died last year in China from respiratory illness caused by pollution what that’s a staggering number all right so they said you know we think we’d rather not see what we’re breathing maybe the air shouldn’t be this brown color you know so what we’re gonna do is we’re gonna make it a law that all the trucks all the cars actually have to have these things called

catalytic converters own I mean these guys are literally Sadhna catalytic converters off for a number two diesel and mix it in 50/50 on their motorcycles and their delivery trucks and this of this purple spoke is just worn out the back of the trucks if you like wait a minute you know and then that’s what they’re used to and finally the party said you know we can’t afford to lose a million two million people a year because we don’t have a lot of cats yeah Oh bad is what caused our shortage all right all of a sudden the biggest consuming nation outside of America said because we’re gonna start putting okay let converters on our vehicles and and and we ended up looking around on there is enough suffer happened yeah what are we gonna do that and that about 19 when that when that one went down when did that happen about a year and a half ago okay and that’s why you saw that huge spike on the price of scrap and it and didn’t stop yeah did you notice how how we got the spite and uh normally when you get

a spike you get that drop you know when our market gets tired it just never stopped it just kept right on going and any product and you guys saw this more than I did I’m sure any time you had any product on the end somebody was calling me what do you got you know how what do you got on hand yeah and I know personally for I have some NDA’s in place I can’t talk about some of our customers but and the auto manufacturer that I’m familiar with was like we had we callin buttons 5050 odds palladiums and you know how many buttons you got it send me 10 70 20 we were like you’re a to lot buyer three left but do you we keep talking about you well I need a thousand ounces you’re like what you know and you know the orders reserve exactly there you go yeah yeah exactly right they knew they knew they demand was going to increase and and by golly it did so you know taking that into account and as this coronavirus starts to subside and we start to see car sales go from 90

percent down and also by the way the Chinese stock markets down to 80 percent so all the people that had lost millions and millions of dollars they are not buying cars either yeah so those two things bumped into each other major events so the consumption in China just disappeared so we I’ve been I’ve been watching that diligently when I start to see that come off then we’ll you know I’ll give you a heads up the other thing that was very interesting Bloomberg called me yesterday and they said the new EPA rulings passed I don’t know if you guys saw that but yeah Trump has decided that that the Baumer ruling was a little bit high and he’s gonna ease up on the amount of no.2 and and co2 emissions so I was they got they sent me the document he was 1272 pH it’s okay so I didn’t exactly get through it last night so I looked at I said you know what I’m gonna do is here’s what’s gonna happen see go with me on this guy’s see what you think I’m saying to myself if we get an infrastructure bill together

and I have faith in this guy running the country right I think we’re gonna get it and and what’s gonna be the first thing you get to be in demand gonna be like trunks guys are gonna be working and they’re gonna be wanting to buy newer vehicles because they’re gonna be hollowed they’re gonna be on the road more they get to move more product and so I said all right I’m gonna read and see what the bill and how it’s gonna impact like trucks because that’s gonna be the biggest thing and and as I looked at it I said okay it looks like we’re 1.5 to 2 percent more emissions which is really nothing I mean you know you watch the news it was like the end of the world was coming in you know be like 10 percent more pollution and blah blah blah it’s not just that true according to the numbers that I read I’m looking at 1.5 all right and and how much is that gonna affect our in how much how many PGM how much less is gonna be used I’m thinking 2% you know it’s it’s

just not gonna be significant because what if the last three years we’ve been averaging about a three to five percent deficit every year if we didn’t have you guys on the job recycling we’d be in a real bad way there’s just this enough product listen if they keep closing down mines because I mean I think just like any business and a mind is no different yeah just turn the lights off and then to turn back on exactly right and your production your production isn’t the same as it as soon as you start as it was the day you stopped it takes a while to fire those those things back up and get the guys used to working again I mean just get a rhythm set up you know getting in and out of the locker room uh you know I mean just little things that eat up the clock you know you’re a hyung it’s absolutely right very very best thing that can happen to the weather it’s a base metals or the for the precious metal side is mine closures because I think dad is gonna drive that he’ll Drive pricing in and

of itself when that when that deal does turn absolutely right and now now here’s the thing up now and this is why we’ve been so choppy and this is what you were asking you know we’re seeing a copper all over the place and platinum palladium you know $500 swings you know why is this happening when I looked at let’s say let’s use Australia for an example it’s a it’s good it’s a good analogy they’re gigantic iron ore producers and they’re all of a sudden the ports are closed in China but they have del coronavirus everything’s going along smoothly there so what is it so what do they do they’re still producing they’re running their minds that they don’t slow down a bit they’re just piling and piling and piling or and finally they look around and they go where we gonna put this stuff yeah what are we gonna do so the question is here for this show this is the big multi-billion dollar question how big is that waves are gonna be at yin and yang where demand is way way way up but stockpiles are real high when are they gonna

meet and you know what’s gonna happen exactly what happened right now and before it’s gonna be choppy it’s gonna be whippy it’s gonna be very very bizarre you’re gonna have giant orders coming in to get filled shortages happening it’s gonna be it’s gonna be fun man it’s gonna be the Wild West again you know I mean zero six-gun baby there’s going to be a I think I think there’s gonna be a pretty good when it starts yeah you know what that timeline looks like and a lot of people who can hold on the longest as well I think oh yeah absolutely yeah yeah I mean you know the guys that the guys that are hedging that we that are which means if they have more cash on hand and and they have a little they have a little more fuel in the tank if you will you know you know they’re gonna be okay they were they were short on the way down so they didn’t lose value on their products so their companies are healthy a lot of guys in hedge that lost tremendous amounts of rhodium and platinum and palladium are

hurt now we are seeing some recovery right we’re seeing some stuff coming back here but the question is you know how soon are any of us really gonna see that real demand that you know that we were seeing before our president seems to think the end of this month you know that we should be you know get back at our feet getting people out to work so going with your point which has great validity you know it takes a while for the guys to get the furnaces going again you know well let’s say another quarter and and we’ll probably start to see that demand come back in in my opinion so real-world example for you let’s say today a guy has to deliver a load of copper he’s committed to delivering a load of copper this month okay pounds right and he doesn’t have it hedged okay he’s just sitting on the material yes well a load of copper in his warehouse he’s already committed to delivering it yep sometime in the month of April okay okay all right I would say right now I would recommend for him to do nothing but

what he’s doing all right which is he owns it it’s there you know just plan on take it or making some money on the deal but right now markets just ambling right and and he could either be right or wrong and and it’s just it’s a guess at this point and and I don’t forget other people’s money you know it’s just it work yes so I would say at this point between two to 15 it’s this little area right in here we’re just bumping along in here and we have no direction there’s no indicator here yes really seen any big upside big downside I don’t know seeing that kind of called ocean out there for now yep either a big cataclysmic event happens one side or the other right yeah and the thing is that we are seeing just so you guys know my guys in Singapore and also some of my European recyclers and and a waste producers and and recyclers all been getting subtle inquiries for solubles so we’re seeing some copper going out in a little bit bigger number but nothing significant well they’re getting they’re getting hits you know they

say this – just for your own know I’ve got a couple of people that have inquired they know that we have material and they’ll get it’s offered above market pricing nice multiple to different companies and so that tells me that either they’ve committed to material they don’t have or that they’re starting to feel that supply crunch you know that’s a you know what I’m gonna go with the first one I think you’re right I think you’re right i I think that’s a very good assumption I think they’re saying hey I was just looking at it 20800 and now it’s at 19 I’m just gonna buy it I’m gonna use it at some point you know and I must and I’m the CEO of a firm and I’m looking and going you know right now I’m halfway back I I think I’d be fool I’d be foolish enough to step in here because I I could do dollar cost average you give great yeah so so why shouldn’t I buy it right here you know I think I think this is one more thing one last point and you you could you could definitely counter it

but if you if you think I’m wrong but if if the feds push a bunch of money at small businesses and then all different types of small businesses and obviously commodities traders are in that mix if you get a big jag of money to come into the system and then stay the next 30 to 60 days uh-huh who are inherently natural gamblers right well unfortunately oh yeah I mean let’s put it this way in this industry they are you know it’s but by the time they can get to me usually they’ve just been beat to crap it’s just tired of gambling and they don’t want to gamble anymore just don’t wonder if there isn’t gonna be some kind of like you know market movement moving you know dollars coming in there this is why I say this is my here you’re gonna get a loan at 3% yeah be anybody saying law 3% I mean that’s not a big swing and platinum palladium rhodium copper no job is it take a big it’s a one-day movement nowadays yeah you know nowadays you’re seeing those big Mosher absolutely is that going to increase

there’s not gonna make that market more choppy than it is today well I mean the thing is that that what I’m gonna be doing if I’m a CEO oh and I know I’ve got a good-size loan coming in and I’m and I’m crunching my numbers I think what I’m gonna be doing is I’m gonna be looking out to December yeah no I’m saying I mean I go eight years and I’m saying to myself this thing’s gonna be over we’re gonna be you know we’re and and then do a logarithmic value going out for appreciation against consumption and I would definitely be taking some of that money and coming your way not even a question you know and and trying to get some commitment and if nothing else I’ll be I’ll be calling me find me some futures you know in platinum palladium copper whatever you know or think nickel whatever they happen to want because we you know we know we’re gonna need it at some point we want to lock it in at these levels while we’re at this overproduction level and and you know I think that makes good stuff and

I’m not gonna arguing a hundred percent on that I mean I think you hit it on the head but I think we need to look just a little further down the road you know I think the longer it drags out then the longer you have to look for the return right yeah because it goes to your point as to how soon the guys are gonna be able to get up to speed you know hey the mines open so what you know what’s the production like you know yeah dr. Davis who is the head metallurgist of the South African platinum palladium mines he and I chat occasionally a very interesting guy hell of a glider pilot who I used to be he he and I chat Annie Annie says this was a month ago I did an interview with him released some of the information and then move out to our guys and he says we’re closing these mines down so I don’t carry a me tilt since I he says because this disease comes through he goes we’re done he goes I’m just I’m getting ready to just shut all this down and that’s

that might 120 years old I they you know they have enclosed in a very long time and there’s force majeure event some sort of earth moving well that’s exactly what it was it is a force majeure event and you hit it right on the head and and and it’s a recognized for sure so the insurance companies aren’t real happy about that because you know I mean everybody’s going act of God but now it’s down the eternities you know it’s all the other game you know so I’m super curious I just have you ever seen in your lifetime Chicago the city of Chicago as quiet as it is today is it just almost like kind of I’m not fire I’m gonna give you an analogy it’s gonna blow you guys away all right this is just so bizarre right walking around on the street there’s dead pigeons laying in the street up and you’re like going what the hell’s going on pigeons all right the pigeons eat the garbage that people throw away the McDonald’s they throw in the garbage can some pigeons go and pull it out oh they eat that’s what they are

they’re garbage eaters man no garbage to eat so the pigeons are dying all over the city I mean I mean you’re just sort of like on this it’s it’s eerie you know I got on the train there were seven people on a train you know I mean I just know in our a little world over here you know and I don’t organ and how quiet it is that I can just imagine those big cities that you know they don’t ever sleep right now ever most part and especially in like the financial districts and so oh yeah and then just to have it be it took eight million people of the street eight million I mean it’s a whole lot of action man oh yeah it’s gone I mean it’s you don’t even see a car I mean basically you know the only reason you see somebody out it’s get some groceries yeah that’s that’s it you know and and you know we fortunately were set up in case of this event I mean we even have our backup servers you know and you know hid in a cave you know because you just never

know what’s gonna happen man I mean and we have an obligation to guys like you you had better work you know yes so we were I just wanted to tell you thanks man I appreciate the time I can’t wait you know I’m thankful for Nick for setting setting this up you know need to and Nick spent a lot of fun cuz I like given in mark that we as good as they come right yeah right I just I can’t I can’t wait to you know sit down to you whenever as mentioned we can get a commitment out of you and just walk through the markets here you know whatever it is once a week once a month whatever that day is would be good yeah but people know you know yeah I mean you get up in the morning how why is the price this well here’s why this is what happened this this political event caused that price to occur that this is that’s what I do and I’ll be you know I’ll be happy to give you their Hamelin not a note no worries at all and and and hopefully you to

help also the head of the coronavirus task force in China dr. Ahn I did a video with you I saw that oh you did okay great yeah and so stuff okay because you know if you could tag it to this somehow just if we could prevent one guy from getting sick I’d be real happy you know yeah we go yeah and that’s a freebie man just just tack it down there you know yeah yeah we will we will do everything on our end that we can – okay great it’s good for the country man that’s what it’s about yeah well thanks again much appreciated and I look forward to continuing the dialogue oh yeah absolutely hate everybody who’s the first time we’ve had a chance to catch up and and I’m gonna try to interject as much as I can to give a little more transparency to who is really craziness that’s been going on and and we you know doing our best to give you some legitimate numbers not you know this made-up CNN stuff you know on yeah yeah all right much appreciate you bringing back on okay thanks a lot