Metal Monday – St. Patty’s Day Special Episode
[Intro Music]

Nick:
We got a special St. Patty’s Day Metal Monday! How you doing today, Brett?

Brett:
I’m good, man. How are you today?

Nick:
I’m doing good, man. You know, St. Patty’s Day—everyone’s supposed to wear green. We’ve got green right here!

Brett:
I think that counts for me. I’ve got a green bracelet on—that counts, right?

Nick:
Yeah, yeah.

Brett:
Funny story—I don’t wear a lot of jewelry, but my mom gave me this string bracelet four years ago on St. Patty’s Day. I had taken my parents to Bisbee during COVID, just a vacation. It was an awesome trip. My mom bought us these bracelets, and I haven’t taken mine off since.

Nick:
That’s awesome.

Brett:
Yeah, every time I look down at it, I get a good memory of that trip and time with my mom. St. Patty’s Day has always been a fun day in my book. I was in Ireland once for St. Patty’s Day—that was off the hook! I think it was seven years ago now.

Nick:
That’s cool. It’s also my oldest daughter’s birthday—St. Patty’s Day. So it’s always had a special place in my heart. I doubt she’s ever watched an episode, but happy birthday Justine! And happy St. Patty’s Day to everyone—stay safe out there!

Market Talk – Green Day for Copper
Nick:
Markets are green too, right?

Brett:
Yeah, green! It’s been green for a while. COMEX hit 4.94 today for copper—I was like, “Oh man!”

Nick:
Is the COMEX holding strong? What’s happening to your spreads out there?

Brett:
That’s something worth talking about. People see $4.94 copper on the COMEX, but they don’t realize LME is at $4.42—that’s a 50-cent difference. A lot of insulated wire is bought for export—it’s bailed and sent to other countries where it gets chopped and processed. Especially the low- to mid-grade wire.

A lot of domestic choppers like us at Copper Reclaim sell domestically, but bigger wire chopping operations sell a lot of their material via export. The thing is, export buyers price off the LME—not the COMEX. So what people see on the market doesn’t always match what recyclers are receiving.

Nick:
So it’s not that recyclers are trying to shortchange anyone…

Brett:
Exactly. About 50% of U.S. copper is exported. That’s a long-standing fact. And export consumers purchase based on the LME price, not COMEX. That creates a big spread.

Nick:
Does that difference always exist?

Brett:
No, it ebbs and flows. Right now, the arbitrage is big because COMEX has moved so fast, and LME hasn’t caught up yet. The U.S. domestic market is relatively strong—stronger than most other economies—even with some recent stock market issues.

So COMEX is stronger than LME-based Kitco contracts, for example. The same applies to aluminum: Midwest premiums are 50+ cents, added to a low LME price. That’s why aluminum pricing is so aggressive lately.

You start adding tariffs, shifts in demand, and the strength of the dollar—it all messes with these spreads.

Short-Term vs Long-Term Outlook
Nick:
So while $4.94 copper looks and sounds great, it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Brett:
Exactly. I’ve been explaining this to a lot of customers. They ask, “Why isn’t it running this hard?” And I have to break down all those same points.

Nick:
So do you think COMEX hits $5 and holds? Or do we see a fall?

Brett:
I sold against it the other day to protect some margin. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see it blow through $5 if there’s positive economic news. That said, I think the stock market and the economy are going to have a rough go sorting things out.

In the medium term though, I project real strength in the U.S. Short term, I still anticipate higher prices. Tariffs and reshoring efforts are boosting U.S. base metals—copper, aluminum, all of it. They’re trying to strengthen the U.S. economy and jobs.

Nick:
So even though there’s some pain ahead, the long-term picture is solid?

Brett:
Exactly. You’ll have to take some pain now, but there’s a real chance for long-term gains. I think this year’s going to be a good one. We’ll see some ebb and flow, maybe a 10–20 cent pullback, but overall, I think we hit $5 COMEX this week.

Nick:
Do we maintain that though? Like, do we break into that new pricing territory and stay there?

Brett:
That’s the question. We’ve hit $5 before, but only for a few days. It usually falls right back. So will it become the new normal? Hard to say. We’re not trying to speculate too much, but this show is about opinions.

I think we’ll see some strength, some dips, and then more growth. It’ll go up and down a bit, but we’re on the right track.

Nick:
Yeah, it’s anyone’s guess. Place your bets!

Yard Activity & What’s Coming
Brett:
The yards are flowing again! Weather’s breaking, spring is here. Spring break is on in Idaho, at least in our area. Kids are off, yards are getting busy again. After some slower months, it’s nice to see traffic picking up.

Nick:
Hopefully the pricing maintains. Maybe we even get another up-month on ferrous. That would help the yards with inventory and traffic.

Brett:
Yeah, we’re seeing activity pick up. And we’ve got a lot of stuff cooking behind the scenes—some really big expansions coming.

Nick:
Yeah, a couple big ones.

Brett:
Scrap side expansions, tire recycling expansions—big things coming down the pipe!

Nick:
Can’t wait to share it with everyone when we’re ready. Stay tuned!

Brett:
Stay tuned—it’s coming!

Nick:
Thanks, everybody!

[Outro Music]