Metal Monday Episode #15 with Nick and Brett, April 11th, 2022

On this episode of Metal Monday, the markets aren't quite where the guys thought they'd be last week, and they share their predictions for the rest of the month.

Transcription

all right another metal monday how you doing brett i’m doing good man yourself i’m doing very well man i really want you to win our 100 bet on copper i really truly do but today is not looking like it’s trending in the right direction thoughts on that my thoughts are uh the overall overall base metals market is getting crushed today um the pgms were up this morning you know they’re kind of flattening back off coming down um i don’t i don’t really know what to think you know it looks like that it’s uh it’s trending down i i still feel that it’s we still got some some hope for five dollar copper this month at least i’m uh i’ll put it like this i ordered a new picture from my office at uh my house and i’m super excited about it right my wife doesn’t love it or she won’t love it because i know but it’s it’s a picture of dennis rodman okay the back of dennis robin’s head and he when he used to paint his hair crazy right like bright green yeah and it’s yellow his hair is yellow and

it has a the you know the smiley face so it has okay the two dots and then smile and it’s and it’s and it’s in his and he’s kind of has his head down so you can see the smiley face and he’s in his bowl’s warm-up jersey that you can tell like they’re doing the national anthem or something and it says relentlessly optimistic oh i love it yeah so i was like done like i pulled the trigger on i knew i know exactly where i want to put it so that is me like yeah sometimes it benefits me it sometimes it probably hurts me but at the end of the day relentlessly optimistic is where i choose to live my life i like it i mean i always tell people i’m uh optimistic to a fault sometimes where i’m like like oh i think we’ll get that account you know i think i’ll do this and i’m like well we didn’t you know but i mean i’d rather be how i am than the other way where i’m like oh i don’t think we’re gonna get that yeah no i just can’t live

that way i just my brain doesn’t work that way it never has my dad always tells me that they really screwed up with me because they gave me too much self-esteem i think that trickled into my optimism basically i love it there’s a parent that says yeah we gave our kid too much selfish yeah they always my dad always says that he’s like you always just think you gotta get yourself out of a jam you’ve been that way your whole life yeah and um so i yeah i kind of live i kind of live in that in that realm myself so as far as scrap goes i’m still optimistic about it um we could get there it’s the 11th yeah we got a lot more copper out of the equation the rest of it nickels coming back down to reality i mean below 4 below 15 into the 14s aluminum is you know coming back to to reality but still a dollar 61 lme aluminum is pretty good but here’s the deal i think this is a good sign i think if we saw it run run run run run and we’ve said

this before on this show yeah if we keep saw it running hard for two months three months the crash isn’t gonna happen you know a big crash and it still could i’m not saying it can’t but this way it seems more sustainable like very much more sustainable where or maybe these markets really do hang out for you know a year year plus you know where we are living in these like really good commodity markets you know and we’re um so i think this natural ebb and flow we see it every month we see it every day you know this is what the world we chose choose to work here yeah the ups and the downs between but no i feel like you know ferris pricing if you sold early i think you did all right you know i think you got some up money um i think that you know there’s some people that they feel that the ferris market should be softer this month um we’ll see we’ll see what happens what is does that trickle and push into may potentially we’ll see it really flipped on a lot of people though where

people thought it would be up up big yeah and then some markets were down down 10 down 15 down yeah and then up half of what they thought on different grades yeah um it’s got a lot of people in our industry bet on that situation you know but i feel like we’ve had this exact conversation a year ago yeah it’s not yes i don’t think people aren’t necessarily bet about the pricing because i mean we we’re all in the scrap business right like we’re all in the business of volatility like that’s why there’s hedging opportunities that’s why you know all these things are in place like if you don’t like the volatility then by all means like find a way you know to to tease it out the best you can whether it’s through hedging or keeping your price at a reasonable margin so the downs don’t really affect you as much or you know whatever i think what probably got the most people bent is just it feels like it’s not a two-way street all the time with the consumers right and i think and the more more people i’ve talked to

like that feels like that’s what has people been not necessarily the volatility it’s kind of something we’ve kind of come to expect so well we’ll have to wait and see you know we’ll see what ferris does if it really continues to be soft we’ll see if copper bounces back the pgms feel like they should be on a big up i feel like yeah i feel like they’ve got you know i think everybody’s just trying to figure out what’s going on you know with our own domestic market what’s going on on the you know the pgm side as far as um more sanctions you know with uh with russia they finally dropped the sanctions on russia right they did some of them yeah yeah and a couple of the you know basically the palladium producer manufacture basically as it goes into and the i don’t almost want to call it like a clearinghouse but the people that actually manufacture the material send it to um london metal exchange they basically said they aren’t going to accept you know playing anything from this certain date which was friday any new material coming in anything that was

existing they were they were going to at least allow it to be traded and moved but anything anything after that date they were going to stop um accepting it so that’s kind of got people at least kind of considering and thinking about what does that do to these to the price of palladium platinum and rhodium so it’s kind of brought that a little bit more attention to those those medals which we’ve been discussing and having those conversations internally for a while now um that’s really why you got the big pop at the beginning of march was when the whole war kicked off everybody was worried oh here comes sanctions here comes this and i think that was one of the big drivers of nickel at the time that and everybody was shorting it and that kind of just you know that was that’s a kind of a different story but that’s why palladium popped platinum you know rhodium all of that all just ran hard so now that the sanctions are actually people were just speculating back then yeah what does that really look like i don’t know i guess time time will tell

but it’s definitely something we pay a lot of attention to well yeah we’ll keep following and we’ll update everybody every monday absolutely thank you everybody have a great day you