Metal Monday Episode #17 with Nick and Brett, April 25th, 2022

On this episode of Metal Monday, Nick and Brett discuss how pricing is looking as April wraps up and discuss their predictions for May.

Transcription

all right welcome everybody it is a bloody metal monday today everybody i all i can all you can do when it gets this rough is smile and keep moving how you doing brett i’m doing i’m taking your advice yeah i’m smiling keep it moving yeah no i guess on a days like today you just know that you’re back in the scrap business again mm-hmm you know they’re gonna give you some some good days where they’re gonna give you some love and then you’re gonna get these some of these days where you’re like well that was a good one that was a good run while it lasted so copper down 15 cents on the comex today but not the whole picture it fell it’s fallen last three 48 days for 40 cents 50 cents 40. it got up to 480 just shy of 45 or something so we’re down close to 40 cents yeah from a week from last to when i was i was pounding the drum that we were gonna get to five dollars and uh i was pretty excited about taking a hundred dollars from you mm-hmm well we

still got a few days i’ve seen some i’ve seen some crazier yeah it moves in a hurry it definitely feels like right now it’s like everybody’s kind of in panic mode or like everybody’s kind of nervous about is this now the where these things start to you know turn and and go the other way after what really has probably been like a good two-year run it’s been about two years we’ve had a really good run for two years which in the scrap industry to have a run like that for two years i mean it’s inevitable for it to kind of come back to earth now if you see and i’ve been saying this for a long time but if you see these natural ebbs and flows where it just kind of stays here at 4 40 and then it gets and that’s your new low yeah and then that could be where this thing really does continue to get to five dollars this year or if we see like uh you know like 2012 when it really tumbled are we gonna see the 2012 again yeah i think i i don’t know we’ll

see i mean i hope not but i mean i at the end of the day i guess we are we do what we do i mean i don’t know how you uh how you anticipate that or judge that but i mean you still have to think there’s still a lot of money flowing the system other than right now i think everybody’s kind of nervous about the interest rates coming up is that going to take some steam out of the economy i think it is i feel like that’s definitely but is it like a healthy break like for some things i think it is i mean you know for the longer they’re doing it in the long for the long-term success yeah but i also think you’re never gonna and you’re never gonna interest rate this thing up to where it should be in the whole grand scheme of things because we’ve we’ve put so much debt down that all you’re doing is creating a bigger debt payment by jacking the interest rate right so at some point there’s a lot of you know discussion a lot of like trying to talk the market

off versus actually putting in and implementing these big rate changes so if they feel like they can talk it down before they actually have to you know do these three or to seven half point raises i mean we’ll see um but that’s definitely taking some some gas out of the commodities for sure this morning i think everything was rough friday everything was was pretty rough as well thursday friday today everything was red pgms included the catalytic converter pricing that’ll be taking a big hit and copper as we discussed took a big hit aluminum’s down i mean considerably like that yeah i mean it is but it isn’t yeah the biggest thing is just making sure from an inventory standpoint like on the scrap side and the base metals is trying to manage your your inventory you know and that’s where as people to manage scrap yards and work for scrap yards not the people selling to them yeah that’s where we get hung out to dry sometimes we buy all this material and then some people don’t realize like we’re accruing a fair amount of risk that’s where guys like thomas get phone calls

today yep people are probably popular yeah anybody that’s in really any probably anybody that’s in the hedge business or people that are hedge you know they probably feel pretty decent about you know stuff that they’ve bought and sold today and now the biggest thing is going to be like anything is so you’ve bought and then you’ve hedged and you’ve done all the stuff can you logistically get the material out the door right and we keep you know i think 2022 2022 was kind of a year where just logistics were heavily discussed i think 2022 might even be a messy er logistic year than 2021 was i mean i know of a lot of people that are having a hard time just moving iron because they’re having rail car issues and trucking is a whole another that’s what you compartment of it’s you know of itself and it’s just adam talked about that’s what we have in common like we both invested heavily in our transportation side yes and that was a foresight seen by your dad you know and adam said he got into it and twice was it 12 or when was it

something like that you really kind of started making made the decision so 10 years ago 15 yeah or something like that so to go heavily in logistics and i think anybody that’s that has multiple facilities or a decent volume like your ability to control your own destiny on the freight side is big but that’s where like the rail car issues lately have come into effect because you know there’s it takes a lot of trucks to move say 5 000 ton right it doesn’t take nearly as the number of rail cars as it as it does as trucks to move five how many tons can you put in a rail car so everybody over here we we shoot like a hundred and around 100 to 105 um net tons per car okay right so truck like over here we go maxis so maxi truck four axle tractor four axle trailer if the newest the newer ones the lighter the lighter trucks and trailers you know we can get up to 69 70 000 loaded out correctly but with side kits you know 65 to 67 on average so you’re like 30 30 to 35 ton

yeah somewhere there’s 30 gross right yeah in that range 30 31. so that’s about our sweet so three trucks to one row we always said three trucks equal one car okay roughly so like if you buy a rail and you can do it and you can get a rail car you know yeah if you can get house cars if you get them out you know because there’s a lot of mills that you know took orders in april that people aren’t going to be able to fill and if the market’s coming down in may all those orders are going to get wiped right because that’s what steel mills do and then so now it’s going to be what do they anticipate the market to be so they’ll cancel those three because you were late right those cancel those loads because you were late if you didn’t get them in the right month yeah yeah if you’re if you’re if you don’t get the cars and you don’t get them out and depending on the mill you’re the depending on the meal that’s receiving your material whatever deal you make most of it you know is

once that car is loaded and released and and on its way somewhere you know the car has to deliver has to you know whatever generally speaking yeah if you can’t get the cars in because they just over here it’s more of a up issue then you’re kind of hung on that material because you’re not going to be able to even get load it this month because you’re not going to see cars well you know things change on a dime in this industry i mean that’s where we hang our hat on anything anytime anywhere the market is we want to provide the customer with the same service and i suggest that to any business really like you know when’s going is good business is easier you know but when things are tough the prices suck you know it’s going to be on service so you service your customer keep them making money on what they do to make money and you’re going to continue to you know see the light at the end of the tunnel you know exactly it’s welcome to the commodities scrap business you know if you don’t like the volatile moves

i was having that conversation with somebody else this morning i’m like if you don’t like this then like you better you better act in the wrong business because you’re going to get days like this a lot and if you can’t stomach them then you’re probably barking up the wrong tree you probably should like go assemble computers or something well uh or i don’t know do something that that doesn’t require something that’s got more stability maybe like i like the craziness like i love what the yards are bananas i love when the yards are crazy i love when we got you know three four loads going out and a crazy amount of scrap coming in i just love the hustle and bustle i hate when i’m the yards are slow and we’ve been busy shout out i will say this right now a shout out to jim combs for handling all of our logistics and that guy has been making it happen for us this month last month the last eight years yeah so this is amazing awesome he’s uh he’s a guy that i tell every i’m like my goal is to get you

to put yourself out of a job for next month like get it all off off the ground right but he’s he wants a little bit of a buffer like well what am i supposed to haul at the beginning of the i don’t know something else we’ll buy something we’ll find a job or something you know so shout out to the guy that tries to put himself out of a job every every single month and uh still keeps going and that guy for us on the logistics and this in months like this one of the markets slipping and sliding you’re you know you’ve got guys like that and barry for keeping the trucks running so he can keep them you know dispatched sal for keeping on the outside jobs like running flawlessly and not to mention every single guy that’s either bailing or shearing or crushing to get the loads ready to get him out the door so but i just want to i just want to say how much we appreciate jim today like this thanks jim we love you all right guys well in a week maybe we’ll have some better news exactly

okay thank you