Metal Monday Episode #28 with Nick and Brett, July 11th, 2022

It's another bloody Monday this week with metals pricing down across the board. Tune into to hear the guys' predictions for the rest of the month.

Transcription

all right how you doing today brett you know i’m doing good man just uh uh monday another bloody monday golly how bad is it down 10. copper i mean really that’s where we were last monday that shows you how much i checked this morning yeah you’re we got it back above 350. comex okay we’re dipping 342 at the moment you know looked like we were trying to get him back in the game a little bit looked like some things were looking positive this monday it’s a different case you know so i mean end of the week last week a lot a lot of it recovered especially pgms they kind of recovered yeah they’re down they’re down this morning of course they’re down everything’s down i was uh i was i looked at it early this morning that’s why i was curious like what what you were seeing this morning but palladium as we right now it’s up 100. so palladium looks positive palladium has kind of been on a run yeah um i was uh i looked this morning copper was off like three or four cents early nickel was off 11 you

know 11 12 cents aluminum was down two cents i hadn’t looked in the last couple hours a because i don’t have a lot to sell yeah i mean we’re pretty sold through for a while um maybe one or two loads of here and there but nothing crazy um so sometimes when it’s like i don’t when i know it’s gonna be bloody or feel like it’s gonna be bloody because i saw the stock market was off this morning and i don’t have anything to sell like i don’t even subject myself to the pain of looking it’s a little bit different right now with where we are like you said so i think it was 20 18 or 19 when we went to houston and we just closed the deal with a big demo job yeah and we sat down with i forget his name the guy at the university yeah um that we did the podcast we did a podcast we sat down with him and literally like i just closed the deal like that smart that morning by the time we got out of the podcast and copper was off 25 cents or something

just insane and i’m like oh my god yeah because that was a long podcast like it was like a two and a half hour long podcast so that’s how quick can happen in our in our industry and then i i called him like hey like what do you want to do man like you know we worked it out it all worked out but yeah we had to sit on that copper for a long time we did we said we bought it we bought it wrong and that was like a matter of hours that that deal up and that’s what’s crazy about what we do um and some people don’t quite understand like the crude risk we do we do get not just us but all scrap yards throughout the country you know well we’re not hedgers and we’ve talked about that multiple times and sometimes that benefits you and sometimes that hurts you and i think you have to just make a judgment call what’s best for your business maybe a portion of it you know you do or no i don’t know like i said it’s it is what it is um i

i’m not you know i’m not here to advocate for one side or the other i just think you got to do what works for you right so the big swings for us is something we’ve kind of just come to accept and realize but you know for it’s not for everybody and our we we operate our business differently than say somebody else who’s only buying big loads you know full loads at a time like you at some point you become a hedger and you have to you know so the swings for us we we get used to it doesn’t mean we love them especially when it’s on the downhill side but you know when they’re moving the other way it definitely you know it’s it’s it cuts both ways that’s both it really does anything right it does you you got your wins your w’s and your l’s and you just got to manage them and you know like i said a lot of the guys even it’s just the guys that work um and are some of the day-to-day stuff that yeah i tell them like you’re gonna make mistakes but let’s

make let’s not make one that’s detrimental to yeah let’s not blow up the system yeah let’s not blow it up like mistakes are gonna happen and it happens on that level and on like your level it happens on all levels you know and once you learn to once you learn that that’s going to happen you learn to live with that on your day a day and you move on and you forget about it but learn from it and happier you’ll be so ferris prices down this month you know um to what extent you know it looks like the export market was bouncing a little bit last week positive maybe soften the blow but i think you’re still down you know anywhere from 30 to 60 depending on the grade yeah ferris-wise depending on the mill or the export yard you’re going to so i feel like if we’re not at the bottom i’m hopeful that we’re scraping it right now and you know i may be looking for you know some positive momentum going into the fall you know july for us over here is we’ve said it before it’s going to be

hot we expect our flows to be off um we usually don’t see our flows really pick up unless the market’s just screaming until the fall anyways kids are back in school you know there’s more work you know it’s just not it’s not 105 degrees so we’re kind of used to this to a certain extent and we’re going to take full advantage of it with our own yards cleaning up like tidying up maintenance you name it like it’s that’s that’s all it’s all in the works right now so it gives you an opportunity to be more efficient and figure out like oh maybe we’ve been wasting money over here and we shouldn’t be you know gives you that one market you know takes a like it’s doing it gives you opportunity to focus on something else yeah tighten the belt a little bit if you need to um so yeah we’re i mean we’ll see what august brings but you know july ferris is down nom ferris is still struggling commodities in general are you know having a hard time but i don’t anticipate this to last for you know a year so yeah i’m

willing to take a little bit of a hit on copper this morning or this week or month or whatever and just keep i posted the video this morning we’re still chopping wire like the don’t end for us like we might get our margin squeezed or it might might not be as fun as it was when it’s 480 but the reality of it is like business is business like we keep it moving well yeah i saw brad rudover having a conversation about copper on there like the long term like the supply simple supply and demand is copper is going to go up exactly it has to you know if you want everything to be electric yeah there’s only one way so yeah you need more copper all right all right everybody have a great week and uh see you next week thanks everybody