Metal Monday Episode #33 with Nick and Brett, August 15th, 2022

On this episode of Metal Monday, Nick and Brett are back to discuss how pricing is looking as we are about halfway through the month.

Transcription

all right welcome everybody another fabulous metal monday with my friend brett how you doing brett you know i’ve i’ve seen greener mondays but that seems to be well that we were kind of getting in uh it was like red every monday so it’s just kind of like we should be used to it by now we had a few green monkeys we did last monday was was uh a barn burner it was good it was awesome yeah today it’s off about five cents on copper yeah uh still you know still hovering around that 360 mark though i mean which you know that’s still awesome but aluminum’s really cooled off nickels really cold off um ferris some of the reports on that it sounds a little stronger though yeah i think people are hoping talking up that there’s we could be bottoming out right so like uh kind of like my podcast with that chad yeah you know every month is this is the bottom this is the bottom we like to call bottoms because that means that there’s there’s ups coming but you know i’m i am hopeful that you know this month that

this could be the bottom so it’s it’s everybody everything i read is talking about the ferris you know off the east coast and it’s finding some strength and at least the export side so it’s really going to be what does the domestic look like you know for us so and i talked to eddie ornstein last week he said the export on like brass and copper is really strong too right now you know good so that’s really pushing that like that’s a lot more competitive which could help when you’re shipping brass or any red metals you know i’m really interested to see one thing that caught my eye last night was um you know the chinese cut in their interest rates you know everybody else in the world is raising their interest rates trying to get ahead of inflation but the chinese economy you know for multitude of reasons and you know they’re struggling you know and you could i mean i don’t i’m not going to take a deep dive into that right now but the reality of it is um if they’re going to push hard to um drive their economy you know

back from covid and back from this real estate crunch they’ve got then that’s going to mean there’s going to be some back to 0 you know 9 10 when some real money got some real commodities got pushed in there on their infrastructure build i don’t know if it’s going to be as similar to that but i’m kind of more on the optimistic side that yeah they had to cut their rate because their economy truly is slower than anticipated but you know like i know at least i believe that that deal could set off another uh strong commodities push and not maybe even if it’s temporarily i feel like that actually in the medium to short run could actually be a a positive sign for commodities not negative like it’s being you know kind of looked at this morning well people i think a lot of people don’t realize during all these commodity runs we’ve seen this last year year and a half china’s been just in the background not doing much you know so if they really get into the market and be become a big player again who knows where copper goes yeah

who knows where copper goes who knows how you know where aluminum goes where you know the pgas go i mean it’s going to be it’s just going to be an interesting dynamic i think that’s what i love about this business this industry we can sit around and pontificate and guess but the reality of it is none of us know we’re just kind of you know looking and trying to read the tea leaves but i don’t know like i’m kind of like where there’s red there’s there’s there’s green somewhere else and just trying to figure out what that next move looks like but i’m still fairly optimistic on commodities what i’m not optimistic on like we were just discussing our production meeting is the flow right yeah i think that will translate into commodity prices stabilizing or being stronger i was reading an article from uh on kikko this morning as goldman sachs they were talking about the this anticipated um commodities you know downdraft and pricing what people aren’t taking into consideration is you know mining his production rates are coming down right flow of scrap whether it’s because of construction or demolition or

whatever manufacturing slowing down so there’s going to be less commodities available so depending on where the pockets of strength are it’s going to be commodities pricing could actually hold its own or see significant strength just because people are over anticipating the downdraft in production and not anticipating the lack of supply i know the demo guys i talked to they said they’re not quoting nearly as much as they typically should be so that’s a sign that they’re going to be slow here in six months you know yep um that stuff can change quickly um but i feel that same way a lot of our commercial accounts they’re not like slow but they’re not booming like they were you know so that’s a sign like that’s what’s really cool about our industry we can see like some of the stuff coming through the shoot yeah before it really happens you can kind of see with the real like nature of how these different sectors of business are but i’m i’m optimistic to a fault yeah and it’s a weakness i have where i’m just overly optimistic but i still think we got some some there’s a

dynamic in there right now on the supply side yeah like commodities prices are getting pushed down and probably for rightfully so with you know everything starting to slow down but does it overshoot and go down too far and then the supply side comes into effect and doesn’t you know and and basically takes the gas out and say okay like they we gotta have to pay more to buy these commodities because they’re just not out there right and that’s when you start seeing some increase in pricing so we’ll see how it shakes out more interesting to see are you seeing a better demand for stainless anything like that or not really what i’m saying not really i think it’s same i mean i don’t i think i feel like that like i said my gut says maybe fall but if i have to pile it taller and higher for longer i will um but we’re sitting on a pretty good jacket stainless right now gotcha just for that reason well i’m hoping we have a green monday you know a week from today but we’ll have to wait and see yep i love it i

hope everybody gets back to get some kids back to school it’s time it’s that time of year yep all right have a great week thanks everybody you