Metal Monday Episode #49 with Nick and Brett, December 5th, 2022

It's a foggy Monday morning in Idaho and copper is in the green for once! Tune in to hear how base metals are doing and how weather could impact pricing.

Transcription

foreign welcome everybody another beautiful foggy cold ass day here in Idaho yeah and it is December 5th various prices anything for us you know I I was really kind of like at the beginning or middle of November it was looking kind of soft yeah that’s what we were telling it and then you know as the month kind of progressed some some export sales picked up a little bit and some a little bit demand maybe from the steel mill so I don’t know those the money’s up money but maybe not down as much as I I might once have thought so maybe 10 to 20 bucks off maybe maybe last depend on the grade and that’s over here in the Northwest and the West Coast now Midwest I’ve my uh I got a bulls and bears podcast coming out with chadler Brock today that we discussed the Midwest and just kind of the general scrap market and there is some bullishness to that not a lot but you know for a December and I think flows are a little bit slow across the board which plays a big role in it so if it

flows down some of the Mills might pump pump yeah if they’re feeling like their lead time just starting to push out again and if they feel like there’s some you know some opportunity and and if there’s just not a lot of availability I think that’s the big that’s the big thing I um and you said for example like I talked to my buddy down in Texas this morning Tom and he said yeah let’s be 78 79 degrees over here today and I just was like you man I was like it’s 28 right now here in Idaho and it’s slick and it’s cold it took me an hour and 10 minutes to get to work today because normally how long does that take you 30 to 40. okay like so and it’s not even that bad yet yeah so I what happens to the scrap flow when it’s like that you know and the pricing isn’t like nothing to write home about it sucks and that’s just the name of the game that’s the way that’s the way that’s the way it is um so does that impede scrap flow for for sure and will

that help out the market maybe we’ll see I mean depends Still Still demand driven um and I don’t necessarily think that there’s a crazy amount of demand but definitely um there’s definitely some Supply disruption copper went on a tear again down a little this morning it was up a little yeah it was up at one now it’s down about three cents but it’s still we’re still north of 380. yeah um which is good I I’m I’m hopeful for copper I think you know copper is going to could be pretty decent in you know going in next year we’ll see I mean just because there’s a lack of Supply there’s definitely going to be demand there as people move everything to more electric um driven whether it’s automobiles or grid improvements or expansion and if China opens up in 23 then there’s some opportunity there for copper so I’m still you know I’m I could see copper you know hanging around where it’s at and and you know 350 to four dollars pretty pretty easy I think my buddy Eddie Ornstein hit me up he’s real bullish on it I’ve always he always kind of

calls doesn’t always call him right but I kind of trust trust his opinion yeah he thinks early next year we could get 395 ish so I think a lot of I mean because copper does depend a lot of on uh Chinese consumption and if they loosen up some of these coveted controls and allow you know manufacturing and they juice that economy a little bit I could see copper you know staying fairly strong I mean you see aluminum in the mid-120s like that’s that’s nothing to uh scoff about nickel you know 12 20 12 30. that’s that feels pretty good I don’t know like there is still some some positive in the Commodities I was reading an article this morning about the stock market and some some people feeling that the stock market is definitely still a little bit overpriced but there’s definitely room for the Commodities to still carry some some more value you know moving to 23 so when you see these non-ferrous markets go on and tear it right before people set their Ferris numbers do you think that helps to cause a little bearish they’re not connect or are

they not connected you know I don’t I think I used to honestly think that there was some like General mindset of bullishness on base metal Commodities yeah that’s kind of where my head goes but I just but I still it I don’t think so I mean you’ve talked it just really depends on the demand for that certain commodity it’s like just because wheat goes on a tear does that mean that you know be grain yeah or beef well you know I don’t know I mean there is some sort of interconnectivity between those but it’s like one doesn’t drive the demand for the other phenomenon is but you know if you look at across the board when non-ferrous metals have a good run you know that usually what they say the old saying the rising tide floats All Ships so yeah it may not float them all at the same level but it definitely helps brings up the you know it might not be as interconnected as like you see copper going to tear that oh okay now Ferris might go sideways yeah it’s not going to be that that close to a connection

but long term you see some of these base Metals go up and like you typically Commodities Trend together yeah you know but I used to really think like oh right it seems like so many months it’s been like copper just gets his ass kicked at the end of the month and I’m like oh that’s convenient yeah you know and I just kind of think but sometimes I overthink it you know I was talking when I was talking to Chad and what we talked about in the podcast the Bulls versus Bears it’s still a Trader’s market right like there’s a lot of the Dynamics that we deal with on a daily basis does not even affect scrap flow consumption processing it still you know guys in offices behind computers trading that affect our markets more than you know what we’re doing on a daily basis right we’re just kind of living in the living in the ocean and riding the tides that are presented to us right like we don’t necessarily you know control much of anything especially on a really small scale but you know we’re just kind of okay do we move here

and that’s why people I think hedge is because they they want to try and control the tide as much as they can and control the waves but you know in the scrap world we we can sit around and pontificate and and act like we might know where the direction of this going but it’s the Traders man they still control they still control that 100 all right um anything else for our audience nothing off the top of my head man I’m just you know excited another Monday’s here another uh agreement on Monday and kind of green greenish greenish Monday Monday in the books so I mean we’ll take it man it’s uh we’re we’re we got a lot of stuff in the cooker we’re excited um let’s let’s bring on bring on 23 but let’s finish out 2022 right let’s finish the year strong thank you everybody have a great day