Scrap Life Podcast – Metal Monday

Nick: How you doing today, Brett?

Brett: Good, man! It’s a holiday, right? President’s Day?

Nick: Yep, President’s Day. You think they’ll rename it Trump Day after he’s done?

Brett: Ha! Some people might like that. My daughter asked me yesterday, “What are we doing tomorrow, Dad?” I told her, “I’m going to work—I don’t work for the government!”

Nick: Yeah, the garbage trucks were running this morning. Always confuses me which holidays they actually observe.

Brett: Same here. I think it’s just the big ones, like six or seven major holidays. My wife was all cuddled up with the dog when I got back from the gym, kids still asleep. Usually, Monday mornings are absolute chaos in my house—eight people going in different directions. But today was weirdly peaceful.

Nick: Same here. My house was dead quiet except for the dogs. Monday mornings, I always start with yoga—gets me stretched out and mentally set for the week. Helps with soreness and clears my head.

Market Update

Brett: So, markets aren’t actually closed today, right?

Nick: LME is open, but Comex is closed. Copper’s been on an absolute tear the past two weeks, though it dipped toward the end of last week.

Brett: Yeah, it ended at $4.60 but hit a high of $4.80 earlier in the week. That’s almost a 55-cent jump since the start of the month!

Nick: That’s a big move. Hopefully, that’s a sign of what’s to come for this quarter and the year. Ferrous is up, copper’s up, aluminum is strong, nickel is holding around $7. There’s a lot happening in the commodities world.

Brett: The big question everyone keeps asking is about tariffs—what impact will they have when they kick in this March?

Tariffs & Market Volatility

Nick: That’s the million-dollar question. Honestly, no one knows for sure. There’s so much speculation, and it really depends on what side of the industry you’re on.

For scrap guys, especially those on the coasts, we rely on export markets. If tariffs push demand toward domestic steel mills, that could strengthen the U.S. market. But the real driver will be order book demand.

Brett: Yeah, last year wasn’t great for steel mills, especially in the second half. Many cut down on inventory to make their books look better, which is likely one reason we’re seeing an uptick now. Mills have to rebuild stock for the spring.

Nick: Exactly. But will this optimism translate into actual orders? That’s the key. It’s too early to tell if tariffs will have a major impact. People are just guessing at this point.

Other Economic Factors at Play

Brett: Tariffs are just one piece of the puzzle. The strength of the U.S. dollar, global economies, reciprocal tariffs, VAT taxes—all of it plays a role.

Nick: Right. China’s economy is struggling, and other countries are facing challenges too. It’s not just about tariffs. Manufacturers need confidence to take risks on inventory.

Brett: That ties back to order books. Will companies ramp up production this spring and summer? Are they willing to hold more inventory? It costs money to sit on stock—whether it’s scrap, new steel, or aluminum.

Nick: We saw new steel prices rising, so we bought a bunch of corrugated steel pipe. We’re optimistic about the market. You need enough inventory to take care of customers, but also to capitalize on price trends.

Brett: Right, and for steel mills, hot-rolled steel demand is largely driven by automotive. If that sector stays strong, mills will stay busy. But with interest rates and potential tax credit cuts for EVs, the market could shift toward more internal combustion engine cars.

Nick: Which means more aluminum and traditional steel demand. So many moving parts—tariffs are just one of them.

Market Optimism & Risk Management

Brett: What about that aluminum plant shutting down?

Nick: I saw that. I think it was called Magnitude 7. That’s another big news item—30% of domestic aluminum production affected.

Brett: At the end of the day, I keep hearing optimism from people in the industry. Global markets are more complicated, and I’ve wasted hours reading analysis on it. Sometimes, it’s best to just go with the flow and react as needed.

Nick: We can’t control what happens overseas. We have to focus on running our business, making smart bets, and staying aware. But too much outside noise just becomes distraction.

Brett: Agreed. There are enough pessimists out there. If you stay optimistic, make smart decisions, and take calculated risks, you’ll win in the long run. You also have to be nimble—if you get caught on the wrong side of a price move, take the loss and move on. There’s always another opportunity.

Nick: Exactly. The worst thing you can do is let fear dictate your decisions. I’ve seen companies fail because they’re too scared to take action.

Brett: Or because they mismanage their money—but that’s a whole different podcast!

Final Thoughts

Nick: We’re already halfway through February—actually more, since it’s a short month. Only 11 days until March, and then it’s go time. Spring’s coming, the weather’s improving, and it’s time to get after it!

Brett: Let’s go! Thanks, everyone, have a great week!

[Music]