It has been a little longer than we would normally like to get our Recycled 360 Newsletter out but with all the election madness and all the craziness going on in our own daily operations and the wild commodities swings… WE ARE BACK!
I have been doing business with Premier Scrap Services, LLC since before they (recently) changed their name, years ago when they were primarily just a contract torching company. We had landed a large windmill demolition job and we had thousands of tons of big iron that needed cut ASAP because we were running out of space.
As I have said in the past, I always enjoy doing podcasts with people who I actually do business with. Having done business with Premier for 7+ years now I had the opportunity to shoot the shit with the new owner Colin Douthit, P.E. and discussed how he ended up in the world of scrap. After my conversation with him I found out he is just a hustler like the rest of our industry who saw a niche in helping businesses find people to do tough jobs. From my experience, there are plenty of tough jobs in what we do every day in the recycling industry…
Enjoy the podcast and looking forward to a strong finish to 2024… I have a feeling 2025 is going to get wild (in a good way!)
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Hope you’re all doing great! 🌟 This month, we’re diving into the latest trends in the steel and scrap metal industry. Get ready for a wild ride through market ups and downs, each one telling a story of opportunity.
📊 Month-to-Month Analysis 📈
Bull Case 🚀
- 📈 Iron Ore: Up from $92.98/MT to $103.78/MT (11.6% increase).
- 📈 Crude Steel Production: Up from 74.1% to 74.7% (.6% increase).
Bear Case 🐻
- 📉 Shanghai Steel Rebar Prices: Down from 3,417 to 3,290 CNY (3.7% decrease).
- 📉 Copper Prices: Down from $4.49 to $4.34 / lb. (3.3% decrease).
- 📉 Nickel Prices: Down from $17,529 to $15,969/ton (8.9% decrease).
- 📉 HMS 1&2 (80/20) cfr Turkey: Down from $380.00 to $368.83/ton (2.9% decrease).
📌 Noteworthy Observations 🧐
As we head into November, the excitement from October’s gains has cooled off a bit. The looming election is casting a shadow over the industry, and everyone is on edge. US flat-rolled steelmakers are coming back from outages, and some major mills are hiking hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot prices to set a price floor.
There are still a few outages scheduled for November and December, including a big one in the Detroit area. But overall, most steelmakers are expected to return, which should help support demand. On the flip side, the export market has taken a nosedive, losing all the gains from late September and early October. Turkish 80:20 import prices have dropped from October highs of $26 per ton this month.
In the US, big players like Nucor and US Steel have bumped up HRC prices by $20-30 per short ton to establish a floor. The Argus US Midwest HRC assessment fell to $700 per short ton, down $15 since early October but still up from the summer lows of $650. Lead times are holding steady at around 4.5 weeks.
Your success is our mission. We’re here to provide the insights you need to navigate these exciting times. Got questions or need more details? Check out the charts below.
Thanks a ton for trusting us as your market intel source.
It’s Turkey Time! Halloween is in the rearview and the fall classic is over (regrettably my Cleveland baseball team wasn’t in it). At least I have the Browns (heavy sarcasm) but in all seriousness, the weather has been off the charts nice this fall. As anticipated, annual deals for 2025 are slow to develop. Looking back a year ago today, I was on the home stretch of wrapping up annual contracts for the year. This time this year, I have but a handful of deals done and suspect much more of our industrial volumes will be conducted in the spot market next year.
All-in aluminum pricing will end October very closely to where it began the month, but the month was a tale of two halves. The light metal struggled to find footing early in the month, slipping ~$100/ton as the US Dollar gained on other foreign currencies thanks to some concerns that the labor market was slipping and speculation that the Fed may need to pause on dialing back interest rates. Remember, as the LME is dollar-based, spikes in the dollar generally weigh on aluminum pricing (as investors sell their LME position in favor of foreign currency based investments) while greenback dips tend to boost pricing for the inverse reasoning. Recent economic readings indicate the Fed is still on track to cut rates another quarter percent on November 7th. That coupled with a massive run up in alumina pricing has recouped that $100/ton in the LME and has propelled the Midwest premium up nearly 3c over the back half of October… Read More.
Post US Election – What Will the Impact be on PGMs and Converter Prices?
“I am going to wait to sell converters until after the election.” The most common comment heard by our sales force amongst independent automotive recyclers. Hoarding converters has become prevalent with some since the sharp decline in PGM prices over the past several years. With other commodities like steel, aluminum, and copper remaining stronger, and part sales remaining robust, there is no pull on the purse strings to give up the nest egg of scrap catalytic converters in the hope that they will appreciate in the future.
We do not see the same strategy with publicly traded or PE-backed scrap metal and automotive recycling firms that continually sell all commodities into the market to bolster monthly revenue and earnings.
So why did platinum and palladium spike just before the election?
Just before the election, palladium prices had surged over 20%, exceeding $1,200, driven by supply concerns tied to potential G7 sanctions on Russian palladium and the recent production cut of 200 koz. from Sibanye Stillwater in Montana. The market’s reaction to the brief talk of sanctions was overblown, leading to a swift correction.
The day after the US Election, I asked several precious metal experts the impact of the US Election on PGM prices in the short to long term. Here is what they had to say. Read More.
Trump’s Re-Election and Potential Impact on the U.S. Steel Industry | Nov. ‘24 https://steelindustry.news/trumps-re-election-and-potential-impact-on-the-u-s-steel-industry/
Bright spots for steel in 2025 spark recovery hopes for ferro-alloys markets | Nov. ‘24 https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/bright-spots-for-steel-in-2025-spark-recovery-hopes-for-ferro-alloys-markets/
Catalytic Converter Global Market Poised to Reach $102.7 Billion By 2028, Predicts The Business Research Company | Nov. ‘24 https://www.openpr.com/news/3729811/catalytic-converter-global-market-poised-to-reach-102-7