**Welcome to A Scrap Life Podcast**
**Host: Brett Eart**
Brett: All right, here we go. March 2026. I can’t believe it’s already here. I got my friend Aldo Jordan once again to break down the copper market. What happened in February and what he anticipates for March, and then we’ll come back in April and see whether you were right or wrong. What’s going on, man?
Aldo: Oh, we’re going to start keeping track now? Then I better… if I was smart enough, I’d get charts and you know, do all that but I’m not. So, you know how it goes.
Brett: I agree. So, how’s life? How’s everything going? Is the copper treating you right or is it making you grow gray hair? Because your hair’s still pretty long.
Aldo: It’s giving me a lot of gray hair.
Brett: It’s hard to tell from the video. I wear a hat or else you could see all my gray hair.
Aldo: That’s why we did that on purpose, brother. No, it’s you know it’s hard to decipher all this news from what the net impact is on copper. Trying to decipher the fundamentals between buying, selling, and consumer demand. The equity markets haven’t helped. The round up on precious metals, silver, gold hasn’t helped either. I feel like investors abandoned copper after a couple good runs in there.
Brett: Do you think with copper sitting at say 580 ComX, do you think the Chinese are more aggressive because it’s not at 650? Is 580 a little more appetizing for them on the buy side?
Aldo: Yeah, I think so. The market hasn’t found support at $6. It was driven by speculators, but every time we seem to reach $6, speculators take profits and run. China, buying with US currency, is taking advantage of the arbitrage. There might be a semi-political component with China playing defense, which is driving some of the Asian market’s resurgence.
Brett: Since the Iran war started, the strength of the dollar has played a role in the PGM side, particularly gold and silver. It affected copper too, causing a rebalance around the 580 mark. It feels like there’s support around 580, which seems to be the new normal, right?
Aldo: Yeah, no, it’s actually funny because the average of our three current months is 586. Currency influences and the expense of trading commodities impact copper, but it’s been a struggle for copper to stay above $6 for long.
Brett: What happens if there’s a resolution with Iran, bringing the dollar down? Or is the tension more a headwind for copper?
Aldo: The Middle East consumes very minimal global copper, around 5.6%. China remains the big consumer. Their projection of economic growth at 4.5% is the lowest since 1991.
Brett: When China’s consuming 40% of the world’s copper, even with a 4 to 5% GDP growth, it’s significant.
Aldo: Yes, and any hiccups could put downside pressure. We are seeing aggressive buying from China at today’s prices, though.
Brett: With domestic discounts in the market and consistent aggressive buying, it suggests a possible upside to the market despite some headwinds.
Aldo: Domestic guys are taking contracts but not as many as suppliers would like. They aim for clarity about demand horizon and it impacts the dynamic. Even engaging in shorter two or three-month contracts compared to past long-duration contracts.
Brett: The cost of hedging has increased significantly due to market volatility.
Aldo: Yes, we buy for refineries in Europe and if you deliver less than expected, the financial implications of a deficiency are significant.
Brett: and when these costs escalate, fewer buyers are willing to take positions.
Aldo: Yes, particularly with the high costs in India today. It’s driving away some players. Margins widen with fewer players in the market.
Brett: Goldman Sachs had projections of copper hitting 750. High prices discourage trading house participation at that level.
Aldo: Exactly. At $7.50, less people want to trade. If copper dropped to $3, there would be even less interest. It costs $60 per day to finance $6 copper, just in financing.
Brett: Someone pays for that in the export market. You’re seeing more players exit the high-grade copper market.
Aldo: Yes, high financing costs deter players. India is one market showing signs of stepping back from the high-grade buying due to expense.
Brett: It’s been said… this bus doesn’t run on love, it runs on gas money. Realistically, what do you see for copper in March?
Aldo: I think March presents more tailwinds due to global uncertainties. Stock markets drive sentiment, adding to the uncertainty.
Brett: So, facing more challenges in copper pricing, potentially? Or do you think tailwinds push it up?
Aldo: I don’t see support at $6 yet. If possible, buy, sell, and forget is my advice.
Brett: That’s precisely what I’m interested in, just your viewpoint. Appreciate you joining us again and next month, who knows the state of the world? Thank you, Aldo.
Aldo: You’re welcome, Brett. Take care.