The Trade – Episode #19 with Brett and Chad | April Ferrous Edition

In this April edition of "The Trade," hosts Brett and Chad discuss the current state of the scrap metal market, specifically examining how the Iranian war has shifted export demand toward Turkey. They further evaluate domestic market health by analyzing steel mill utilization rates, seasonal scrap flows, and the impact of rising freight costs on April pricing. Produced by Recycled Media.

Transcription

### Welcome to “A Scrap Life” Podcast

#### Host Introduction
**Brett Eart**: Welcome to A Scrap Life, a podcast solely focused on the hustlers, grinders, operators, and business owners who live and breathe the scrap metal industry every day. Here is your host, Brett Eart.

#### Trade and Market Discussion
**Brett**: We’re back with A Scrap Life, the trade, joined by Chad Eller Brock, the forever bear. It’s April Fool’s Day, April 1st, 2026. This is not a joke, though. This is for real. It’s the April Trade podcast. What’s going on, Chad?

**Chad Eller Brock**: Man, just another day in paradise. I can’t wait to talk. I feel like we’ve had a lot of bullishness in the market. Hopefully, I can talk you to the other side today.

**Brett**: You can do that for about 10 minutes and then I’m going to call my guy and say, “Okay, I heard something.” I think that there are some bull factors out there in this market this month. From what I hear, there are some export cargos moving, sucking some scrap out of the mainland, out of the US. It gives us inland domestic players a chance or at least removes some scrap that’s been hanging around. Hopefully, if it’s not bullish this month, maybe down the road if some of that material leaves. Let’s get into it, man.

**Chad**: Well, let’s start there. Can you see this heavy mount slide?

**Brett**: I can, man.

**Chad**: We’re talking about the East Coast. Volume went off to Turkey, the big Iran war effect. Some Iranian steam mills were bombed, meaning no more billets, slabs going to Turkey, so they got to buy scrap. The main location they buy from is the East Coast. We actually saw Turkey’s price increase around $24-$25 month over month. First blush, it seems exciting both on price and tons.

**Brett**: We’ll stop before you start going into freight. I already know where this train is going. Damn it. Alright, go ahead.

**Chad**: The volume is sometimes more important than the price. I believe the freight cost is actually up $30 a ton month over month. So, if the price is only up 23-25, net, net, it’s probably a $5 down or best-case sideways move to Turkey on the heavy metal side off the East Coast. If some big volume continues to leave, even if the price doesn’t instantly excite, having that option helps dealers negotiate with domestic suppliers.

#### Export Market Insights
**Brett**: Are you seeing some Taiwanese prices up $10 a ton on the West Coast on the export side?

**Chad**: Last month, the Midwest and those markets took a little downturn, whereas on the West Coast, in large part, everything went sideways. So going west, if it’s not up, it should remain sideways. Flows are better, but I think shredded could face pressure due to seasonality.

**Brett**: Container pricing is going up, there’s some demand off the West Coast. Talking about boats, something else impacted is pig iron prices. Last month pig iron was around 465 470 metric ton delivered New Orleans. Now it’s 490. By doing this, there’s some price protection on the downside.

**Chad**: Looking at this yield chart, 490 Nola yields are significant compared to local supply, giving bushling suppliers leverage. Shredded material has pressures. Flows are challenging, which can drive various pricing dynamics depending on market fluctuations and weather conditions.

#### Copper and General Market Talk
**Brett**: It’s interesting to think about weather’s impact on scrap flows and pricing, linking with general manufacturing conditions.

**Chad**: Manufacturing seems optimistic. Warm weather plus decent pricing can boost supply. Unlike hypothetical harsh Midwestern winters, flows are better than expected. I think shredded might face pressure, but manufacturing outlook remains decent in our region, specifically with optimism in domestic manufacturing.

**Brett**: There might be summer doldrums heading into the second and third quarter on pricing. It depends on several indicators like lead times, pricing at $1,000/ton, and external economic factors.

#### Final Thoughts
**Brett**: If domestic demand stays consistent, we might see a balancing act rather than drastic fluctuations. It’s a matter of playing cards strategically and maintaining cash flow. Appreciate your input on market dynamics, Chad.

**Chad**: Thanks for having me, Brett. The market’s unpredictability keeps us guessing, but that’s what makes the scrap life interesting. See you next month.

**Brett**: Absolutely. Thanks to Attilla from Nate for the insight. We’ll see you guys next month. Take care.